* ATLANTIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL962019 10/17/19 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 35 38 40 47 50 46 43 40 33 24 DIS V (KT) LAND 30 33 35 38 40 47 50 42 39 35 28 19 DIS V (KT) LGEM 30 32 33 34 35 35 33 29 25 23 22 20 17 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 20 19 24 29 29 31 28 27 25 20 37 50 55 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 8 8 9 5 8 9 12 9 1 1 0 1 -6 SHEAR DIR 245 254 263 280 287 273 288 284 290 289 306 302 322 SST (C) 29.8 29.8 29.7 29.7 29.4 28.7 28.5 28.1 26.3 25.5 24.0 24.8 24.7 POT. INT. (KT) 165 166 165 166 161 150 148 143 121 113 100 103 101 ADJ. POT. INT. 149 151 154 156 152 143 142 136 112 101 87 87 84 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.6 -52.4 -52.7 -52.9 -52.8 -53.0 -53.3 -53.8 -54.1 -54.3 -55.4 -55.9 200 MB VXT (C) 1.0 0.7 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.4 0.4 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.3 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 2 4 4 2 1 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 77 72 67 63 59 52 59 63 57 50 45 39 36 MODEL VTX (KT) 10 11 11 13 14 20 21 18 17 16 14 12 8 850 MB ENV VOR 20 21 21 5 -3 12 -7 -25 -7 -21 -23 -36 -70 200 MB DIV 105 121 84 35 41 74 37 29 20 -7 -31 -27 7 700-850 TADV 2 0 0 15 20 25 28 61 36 17 27 25 14 LAND (KM) 168 225 305 405 445 316 110 187 233 574 668 696 747 LAT (DEG N) 22.2 23.0 23.9 24.6 25.2 26.5 28.5 31.3 33.9 35.9 37.1 37.7 37.9 LONG(DEG W) 95.7 95.6 94.8 93.4 91.8 88.0 83.8 79.0 74.1 69.4 65.4 62.4 60.6 STM SPEED (KT) 7 9 13 15 17 20 23 25 24 20 15 9 6 HEAT CONTENT 66 69 64 61 98 43 27 28 2 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):350/ 7 CX,CY: 0/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 721 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 69.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 26.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 8. 15. 20. 24. 26. 27. 27. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 0. -6. -10. -14. -20. -27. -35. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -7. -6. -5. -4. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 3. 7. 10. 7. 5. 4. 1. -3. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 4. 2. 1. -1. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 5. 8. 10. 17. 20. 16. 13. 10. 3. -6. -18. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 22.2 95.7 ** 2019 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL962019 INVEST 10/17/19 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 5.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 24.1 30.1 to 2.3 0.22 0.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 71.6 0.0 to 151.8 0.47 1.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.1 36.6 to 2.8 0.52 1.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 0.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.2 2.9 to -2.9 0.30 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 122.4 27.5 to 139.6 0.85 1.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 77.2 -29.7 to 185.9 0.50 0.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 90.4 895.4 to -55.0 0.85 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 1.7 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.0% 19.0% 12.7% 8.1% 7.4% 8.7% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.4% 2.8% 1.8% 1.1% 0.1% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.0% 7.3% 4.8% 3.1% 2.5% 3.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2.0% 6.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL962019 INVEST 10/17/19 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL962019 INVEST 10/17/2019 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 33 35 38 40 47 50 42 39 35 28 19 DIS 18HR AGO 30 29 31 34 36 43 46 38 35 31 24 15 DIS 12HR AGO 30 27 26 29 31 38 41 33 30 26 19 DIS DIS 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 22 29 32 24 21 17 DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT