* ATLANTIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL962019 10/17/19 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 36 37 39 38 38 37 37 34 31 26 22 V (KT) LAND 30 33 36 37 39 38 38 35 34 32 28 24 20 V (KT) LGEM 30 33 36 37 36 34 30 28 24 22 20 19 18 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 15 19 21 25 30 30 34 33 31 22 32 43 46 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 11 8 7 9 4 10 13 11 4 5 7 0 1 SHEAR DIR 242 245 248 259 274 270 276 281 287 311 311 318 319 SST (C) 29.8 29.8 29.7 29.8 29.5 28.9 28.5 27.3 27.8 26.1 25.5 24.9 24.6 POT. INT. (KT) 165 166 165 168 163 153 148 132 138 119 112 104 100 ADJ. POT. INT. 151 152 152 158 154 145 139 124 128 108 98 89 84 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.9 -52.8 -52.5 -52.8 -52.9 -53.0 -53.2 -53.4 -53.9 -54.2 -55.3 -55.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 2 3 3 1 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 700-500 MB RH 76 77 71 65 63 52 51 59 56 54 49 41 37 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 9 9 9 11 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 33 18 9 14 -2 -2 -21 -11 -33 -22 -9 -7 -45 200 MB DIV 97 97 107 69 45 92 47 49 14 4 -25 2 -23 700-850 TADV 2 0 0 -1 13 16 50 94 82 77 66 39 25 LAND (KM) 176 178 256 335 446 267 145 42 191 427 730 831 887 LAT (DEG N) 21.5 22.4 23.4 24.3 25.2 26.7 28.4 30.7 33.0 34.8 35.8 36.2 36.1 LONG(DEG W) 95.5 95.7 95.3 94.3 92.8 89.2 85.3 81.0 76.3 71.3 66.7 63.4 61.6 STM SPEED (KT) 8 10 11 15 17 19 21 23 23 22 17 11 6 HEAT CONTENT 57 68 63 78 44 49 20 15 33 1 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):350/ 7 CX,CY: 0/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 640 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 76.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 16.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. 0. 2. 8. 15. 20. 24. 26. 28. 28. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 0. -6. -12. -17. -22. -28. -33. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -8. -9. -8. -7. -5. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 7. 9. 8. 8. 7. 7. 4. 1. -4. -8. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 21.5 95.5 ** 2019 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL962019 INVEST 10/17/19 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.72 6.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 22.0 30.1 to 2.3 0.29 1.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 62.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.41 1.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.2 36.6 to 2.8 0.54 2.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 0.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.5 2.9 to -2.9 0.59 1.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 123.3 27.5 to 139.6 0.85 2.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 83.0 -29.7 to 185.9 0.52 0.6 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 75.6 895.4 to -55.0 0.86 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 24% is 2.2 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 3.7 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 8.0% 24.4% 15.5% 9.3% 8.8% 10.2% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 9.5% 19.3% 12.7% 6.4% 1.1% 2.4% 0.3% 0.0% Bayesian: 1.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 6.3% 14.6% 9.4% 5.3% 3.3% 4.2% 0.1% 0.0% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL962019 INVEST 10/17/19 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL962019 INVEST 10/17/2019 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 33 36 37 39 38 38 35 34 32 28 24 20 18HR AGO 30 29 32 33 35 34 34 31 30 28 24 20 16 12HR AGO 30 27 26 27 29 28 28 25 24 22 18 DIS DIS 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 22 21 21 18 17 15 DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT