* ATLANTIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL962019 10/16/19 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 20 22 24 25 29 39 44 43 39 44 46 38 V (KT) LAND 20 20 22 24 25 29 39 44 39 35 40 42 33 V (KT) LGEM 20 20 21 21 21 20 20 19 20 19 18 18 17 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 8 12 18 22 21 30 31 34 28 25 16 28 40 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 11 10 9 7 9 4 6 10 5 3 4 2 3 SHEAR DIR 250 249 236 242 245 281 268 274 279 277 272 267 284 SST (C) 29.8 29.8 29.7 29.8 29.8 29.5 29.0 28.6 27.3 27.8 25.9 27.0 22.6 POT. INT. (KT) 166 166 164 166 167 163 155 149 132 139 117 126 90 ADJ. POT. INT. 155 155 151 152 155 153 146 142 125 129 105 108 79 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.4 -52.8 -53.1 -52.7 -52.8 -52.7 -52.9 -53.1 -53.5 -53.8 -53.9 -55.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.7 0.6 0.7 0.3 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.6 0.4 TH_E DEV (C) 10 8 4 2 3 1 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 71 76 79 79 72 61 52 54 60 53 48 42 37 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 7 8 11 10 13 20 22 20 17 20 21 16 850 MB ENV VOR 48 40 33 25 11 -8 10 -18 -3 -19 0 12 -14 200 MB DIV 113 112 111 108 119 37 96 32 41 20 31 -17 -35 700-850 TADV 0 4 3 2 0 20 25 44 38 39 22 18 15 LAND (KM) 134 116 104 145 214 403 246 135 35 125 395 484 490 LAT (DEG N) 20.0 20.8 21.7 22.6 23.6 25.4 26.9 28.5 31.0 33.7 36.2 38.1 39.2 LONG(DEG W) 95.1 95.8 96.2 96.3 95.7 93.2 89.6 85.6 81.1 76.2 71.4 67.2 64.2 STM SPEED (KT) 9 10 9 10 13 16 19 21 24 24 22 16 12 HEAT CONTENT 50 54 55 61 57 36 51 21 16 31 0 21 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 8 CX,CY: -5/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 15 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 662 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 25.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 54.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 12.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 12. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -2. -2. 0. 7. 17. 23. 29. 32. 35. 37. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 6. 7. 5. -1. -7. -13. -17. -20. -26. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -8. -7. -6. -4. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 2. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 2. 5. 12. 15. 14. 10. 14. 14. 7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 2. 4. 5. 9. 19. 24. 24. 19. 24. 26. 18. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 20.0 95.1 ** 2019 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL962019 INVEST 10/16/19 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 16.2 30.1 to 2.3 0.50 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 55.4 0.0 to 151.8 0.36 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 25.0 36.6 to 2.8 0.34 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.00 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.1 2.9 to -2.9 0.70 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 133.5 27.5 to 139.6 0.95 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 112.6 -29.7 to 185.9 0.66 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 34.0 895.4 to -55.0 0.91 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 5.5% 16.0% 7.2% 2.5% 0.6% 1.4% 0.6% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.9% 5.3% 2.4% 0.8% 0.2% 0.5% 0.2% 0.0% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL962019 INVEST 10/16/19 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL962019 INVEST 10/16/2019 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 20 20 22 24 25 29 39 44 39 35 40 42 33 18HR AGO 20 19 21 23 24 28 38 43 38 34 39 41 32 12HR AGO 20 17 16 18 19 23 33 38 33 29 34 36 27 6HR AGO 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT