* ATLANTIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL962019 09/13/19 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 22 24 26 29 35 43 50 56 59 61 62 63 V (KT) LAND 20 22 24 26 29 35 43 50 56 59 61 62 63 V (KT) LGEM 20 21 22 23 24 27 30 32 35 37 39 41 42 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 5 6 8 9 8 10 11 11 9 18 14 22 20 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -1 0 -3 -3 1 0 2 0 2 1 1 0 SHEAR DIR 126 141 171 185 184 192 200 221 180 199 215 225 254 SST (C) 28.1 28.0 28.3 28.8 28.7 29.0 29.3 29.7 29.9 29.8 29.8 29.4 29.5 POT. INT. (KT) 141 140 144 152 150 154 159 166 169 167 167 158 160 ADJ. POT. INT. 141 140 144 152 150 154 159 166 169 167 165 153 153 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.4 -53.5 -53.6 -53.4 -53.5 -53.3 -53.4 -53.0 -53.2 -53.1 -52.9 -52.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 8 9 9 9 10 11 12 12 13 13 14 13 13 700-500 MB RH 56 57 54 51 51 53 51 52 53 54 52 54 55 MODEL VTX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 76 75 55 40 32 30 27 26 24 12 -1 13 3 200 MB DIV 26 39 42 27 28 23 16 11 16 11 5 6 20 700-850 TADV 0 0 -1 -1 0 3 2 0 0 -3 1 -2 -7 LAND (KM) 1547 1406 1272 1148 1057 937 655 426 444 318 259 200 128 LAT (DEG N) 13.5 13.6 13.6 13.7 13.8 14.0 14.1 14.3 14.7 15.2 15.8 16.3 16.6 LONG(DEG W) 40.9 42.9 44.9 46.9 48.8 52.5 56.0 59.4 62.5 65.3 68.0 70.1 72.0 STM SPEED (KT) 19 19 19 19 18 17 17 17 14 14 12 10 9 HEAT CONTENT 25 32 30 49 50 27 39 52 54 66 107 71 67 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 18 CX,CY: -17/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 589 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 77.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 9.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. -1. 1. 8. 17. 23. 29. 32. 37. 41. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 8. 9. 9. 8. 6. 4. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -10. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 6. 9. 15. 23. 30. 36. 39. 41. 42. 43. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 13.5 40.9 ** 2019 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL962019 INVEST 09/13/19 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.4 30.1 to 2.3 0.82 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 37.2 0.0 to 151.8 0.25 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.3 36.6 to 2.8 0.72 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.00 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.8 2.9 to -2.9 0.36 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 125.4 27.5 to 139.6 0.87 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 32.4 -29.7 to 185.9 0.29 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 1.3 100.0 to 0.0 0.99 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 131.6 895.4 to -55.0 0.80 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 4.8% 28.8% 19.5% 10.8% 4.8% 17.8% 16.8% 29.1% Bayesian: 0.8% 6.8% 3.2% 0.2% 0.1% 1.1% 3.8% 3.1% Consensus: 1.9% 11.8% 7.6% 3.7% 1.6% 6.3% 6.9% 10.7% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL962019 INVEST 09/13/19 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL962019 INVEST 09/13/2019 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 20 22 24 26 29 35 43 50 56 59 61 62 63 18HR AGO 20 19 21 23 26 32 40 47 53 56 58 59 60 12HR AGO 20 17 16 18 21 27 35 42 48 51 53 54 55 6HR AGO 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT