* ATLANTIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL962019 09/13/19 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 22 24 26 28 34 42 51 56 60 61 63 64 V (KT) LAND 20 22 24 26 28 34 42 51 56 60 61 63 64 V (KT) LGEM 20 21 22 23 24 27 30 33 35 38 39 41 41 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 4 4 5 4 9 12 11 11 19 18 19 24 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 0 1 0 -1 0 1 1 3 0 3 1 0 SHEAR DIR 197 171 175 178 179 170 194 198 189 191 225 228 254 SST (C) 28.4 28.1 28.0 28.2 28.8 28.7 29.2 29.7 29.9 29.8 29.6 29.4 29.2 POT. INT. (KT) 146 142 140 143 152 150 158 166 170 168 164 159 155 ADJ. POT. INT. 146 142 140 143 152 150 158 166 170 168 164 157 151 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.1 -53.3 -53.5 -53.6 -53.4 -53.4 -53.3 -53.4 -53.0 -53.3 -52.8 -53.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 9 9 11 11 12 12 13 12 14 12 700-500 MB RH 55 56 57 55 52 52 53 51 51 52 52 53 53 MODEL VTX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 83 83 78 63 45 33 28 25 18 18 10 14 9 200 MB DIV 23 46 50 37 26 11 9 -2 -9 13 11 2 11 700-850 TADV 2 0 -1 0 2 0 4 -3 2 -2 -2 0 -5 LAND (KM) 1720 1562 1415 1281 1160 997 790 483 394 396 328 236 234 LAT (DEG N) 13.5 13.6 13.7 13.7 13.9 14.1 14.0 14.1 14.3 14.6 15.1 15.7 15.9 LONG(DEG W) 38.8 40.8 42.9 44.9 47.0 50.8 54.5 58.1 61.6 64.8 67.8 70.4 72.7 STM SPEED (KT) 19 20 20 20 20 18 18 17 16 15 14 12 11 HEAT CONTENT 21 24 32 30 49 24 33 47 54 56 85 74 66 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 18 CX,CY: -17/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 606 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 82.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 8.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. -1. 1. 8. 17. 23. 29. 32. 37. 40. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 5. 8. 9. 9. 9. 8. 5. 4. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -10. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 6. 8. 14. 22. 31. 36. 40. 41. 43. 44. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 13.5 38.8 ** 2019 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL962019 INVEST 09/13/19 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.7 30.1 to 2.3 0.91 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 31.2 0.0 to 151.8 0.21 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.1 36.6 to 2.8 0.61 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.00 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.3 2.9 to -2.9 0.45 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 124.5 27.5 to 139.6 0.86 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 36.4 -29.7 to 185.9 0.31 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 4.8 100.0 to 0.0 0.95 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 125.4 895.4 to -55.0 0.81 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 8.2% 39.6% 27.6% 14.2% 7.5% 28.1% 29.2% 38.5% Bayesian: 2.0% 18.1% 7.9% 0.9% 0.3% 3.5% 4.4% 7.4% Consensus: 3.4% 19.2% 11.8% 5.0% 2.6% 10.5% 11.2% 15.3% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL962019 INVEST 09/13/19 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL962019 INVEST 09/13/2019 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 20 22 24 26 28 34 42 51 56 60 61 63 64 18HR AGO 20 19 21 23 25 31 39 48 53 57 58 60 61 12HR AGO 20 17 16 18 20 26 34 43 48 52 53 55 56 6HR AGO 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT