* ATLANTIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL962019 08/04/19 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 27 29 31 36 41 47 49 51 52 54 56 V (KT) LAND 25 26 27 29 31 36 41 47 49 43 47 50 51 V (KT) LGEM 25 26 26 28 29 31 32 31 31 27 29 29 30 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 4 4 10 14 17 24 28 33 25 31 19 25 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -1 -3 -2 0 3 0 -4 0 -7 -6 -4 -3 SHEAR DIR 17 16 266 264 289 298 294 278 294 301 312 307 307 SST (C) 28.2 28.2 28.1 28.4 28.2 28.8 28.6 28.4 28.7 29.5 30.0 30.0 30.1 POT. INT. (KT) 141 141 139 144 141 150 147 144 149 162 171 171 173 ADJ. POT. INT. 141 141 139 144 141 150 147 141 147 159 168 166 169 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.3 -53.2 -53.4 -53.6 -53.4 -53.7 -53.5 -53.8 -53.5 -53.7 -53.0 -53.3 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 9 10 10 10 10 9 9 11 11 12 11 12 11 700-500 MB RH 47 48 48 49 49 54 57 54 55 57 59 61 57 MODEL VTX (KT) 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 45 50 43 32 46 49 57 55 36 15 -16 -39 -60 200 MB DIV -2 -5 21 41 49 42 28 1 21 24 9 23 4 700-850 TADV 1 1 0 0 0 0 9 0 8 4 0 -1 -8 LAND (KM) 579 466 401 367 400 350 268 111 93 -17 200 290 162 LAT (DEG N) 13.6 13.8 14.0 14.1 14.3 14.9 15.7 16.6 17.3 18.2 19.0 19.6 20.1 LONG(DEG W) 56.5 58.0 59.3 60.8 62.3 65.3 68.5 71.4 74.3 77.2 80.0 82.7 85.6 STM SPEED (KT) 15 14 14 15 15 15 16 14 15 14 14 13 14 HEAT CONTENT 38 36 32 32 29 34 62 37 41 85 107 111 83 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 16 CX,CY: -15/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 605 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 26.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 5.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 8. 16. 22. 27. 30. 34. 37. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 3. -1. -6. -10. -12. -13. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 4. 6. 11. 16. 22. 24. 26. 27. 29. 31. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 13.6 56.5 ** 2019 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL962019 INVEST 08/04/19 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 4.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.4 30.1 to 2.3 0.78 2.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 33.4 0.0 to 151.8 0.22 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.8 36.6 to 2.8 0.41 1.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.0 2.9 to -2.9 0.33 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 116.4 27.5 to 139.6 0.79 1.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 20.8 -29.7 to 185.9 0.23 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 41.2 100.0 to 0.0 0.59 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 203.4 895.4 to -55.0 0.73 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.6 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.3% 17.1% 12.0% 7.6% 0.0% 0.0% 12.2% 0.0% Logistic: 3.0% 8.4% 9.1% 3.9% 0.4% 1.9% 1.5% 2.5% Bayesian: 0.4% 2.6% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.4% 0.1% Consensus: 2.6% 9.4% 7.2% 3.8% 0.1% 0.7% 4.7% 0.8% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL962019 INVEST 08/04/19 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL962019 INVEST 08/04/2019 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 26 27 29 31 36 41 47 49 43 47 50 51 18HR AGO 25 24 25 27 29 34 39 45 47 41 45 48 49 12HR AGO 25 22 21 23 25 30 35 41 43 37 41 44 45 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 17 22 27 33 35 29 33 36 37 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT