* ATLANTIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL962019 08/04/19 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 28 30 32 34 38 41 40 35 33 34 37 V (KT) LAND 25 26 28 30 32 34 38 41 40 35 33 34 37 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 26 27 27 28 29 28 26 22 21 19 19 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 13 13 12 12 20 26 33 33 35 32 25 16 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 -5 -5 -5 1 -1 -3 -7 -4 -4 -3 -4 SHEAR DIR 36 21 9 359 324 308 296 309 289 288 283 302 284 SST (C) 27.2 27.3 27.6 27.8 28.1 28.4 28.4 28.6 28.8 28.8 28.9 28.9 28.7 POT. INT. (KT) 127 128 132 134 138 143 143 146 148 149 150 150 146 ADJ. POT. INT. 124 125 127 130 135 140 139 141 142 141 142 141 133 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.5 -53.5 -53.3 -53.1 -53.5 -53.2 -53.8 -53.8 -54.2 -54.0 -54.2 -53.7 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 8 8 9 9 8 7 8 9 10 11 11 700-500 MB RH 54 51 50 52 51 53 60 68 67 66 65 64 64 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 7 8 8 7 5 5 5 4 2 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 21 9 13 26 25 27 30 43 30 1 -2 -37 -37 200 MB DIV 33 10 -6 -17 -4 32 29 51 29 21 12 -3 9 700-850 TADV -6 -2 -2 -2 -4 2 -4 -2 0 0 -8 0 -3 LAND (KM) 937 945 927 839 736 560 498 487 268 39 81 76 144 LAT (DEG N) 13.6 14.0 14.2 14.4 14.4 14.5 15.1 16.0 17.1 18.1 19.2 20.2 21.1 LONG(DEG W) 51.0 52.1 53.2 54.2 55.3 57.5 59.7 61.8 63.5 65.4 67.4 69.4 71.1 STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 10 10 11 11 11 11 10 11 11 10 8 HEAT CONTENT 8 10 16 27 41 40 41 38 31 44 60 43 40 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 11 CX,CY: -9/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 723 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 43.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 4.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 8. 15. 21. 26. 29. 32. 35. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 0. -5. -11. -16. -18. -18. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -4. -5. -8. -12. -13. -14. -14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 5. 7. 9. 13. 16. 15. 10. 8. 9. 12. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 13.6 51.0 ** 2019 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL962019 INVEST 08/04/19 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 5.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.4 30.1 to 2.3 0.64 2.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 20.4 0.0 to 151.8 0.13 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.4 36.6 to 2.8 0.75 2.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.1 2.9 to -2.9 0.52 1.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 103.0 27.5 to 139.6 0.67 1.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 3.2 -29.7 to 185.9 0.15 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 16.1 100.0 to 0.0 0.84 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 177.0 895.4 to -55.0 0.76 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 1.7 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.3% 18.5% 13.2% 9.0% 0.0% 0.0% 10.9% 0.0% Logistic: 4.0% 12.4% 14.3% 7.2% 1.1% 3.5% 1.6% 1.1% Bayesian: 0.2% 1.2% 1.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.4% 1.2% 0.1% Consensus: 3.2% 10.7% 9.7% 5.4% 0.4% 1.3% 4.6% 0.4% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL962019 INVEST 08/04/19 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL962019 INVEST 08/04/2019 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 26 28 30 32 34 38 41 40 35 33 34 37 18HR AGO 25 24 26 28 30 32 36 39 38 33 31 32 35 12HR AGO 25 22 21 23 25 27 31 34 33 28 26 27 30 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 17 19 23 26 25 20 18 19 22 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT