* ATLANTIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL962019 08/03/19 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 28 30 32 34 36 40 40 34 31 29 32 V (KT) LAND 25 27 28 30 32 34 36 40 40 34 32 30 33 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 26 27 27 28 28 27 25 21 21 19 17 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 9 13 17 18 19 28 34 34 38 36 33 20 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 2 -1 -7 -6 0 -1 -3 -6 -8 -5 -5 -2 SHEAR DIR 337 311 322 327 330 303 297 309 303 286 284 276 289 SST (C) 27.0 27.2 27.5 27.7 28.0 28.4 28.3 28.6 28.9 28.8 28.8 28.6 28.6 POT. INT. (KT) 125 128 131 134 137 143 142 146 150 149 149 146 145 ADJ. POT. INT. 123 124 128 130 133 140 138 142 144 142 141 136 134 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.3 -53.4 -53.4 -53.2 -53.3 -53.3 -53.6 -53.7 -54.0 -54.1 -54.0 -54.0 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 8 8 9 9 9 8 8 10 10 11 12 700-500 MB RH 50 50 47 47 49 49 54 60 63 64 60 64 63 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 7 8 8 8 6 5 5 4 2 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 20 24 14 19 27 30 36 41 41 24 8 -6 -25 200 MB DIV 57 33 6 2 -1 11 40 41 41 32 18 8 9 700-850 TADV -8 -7 -3 -5 -4 -2 3 -9 2 7 0 -2 3 LAND (KM) 1036 1063 1056 939 837 641 552 463 212 11 41 8 101 LAT (DEG N) 14.1 14.8 15.1 15.2 15.3 15.3 15.6 16.1 17.0 17.9 18.9 19.8 20.7 LONG(DEG W) 49.9 51.0 52.3 53.6 54.8 57.3 59.7 62.0 64.2 66.1 68.2 70.2 72.1 STM SPEED (KT) 13 13 13 12 12 12 12 12 10 11 11 10 9 HEAT CONTENT 7 10 14 23 39 38 43 37 33 58 49 37 39 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):325/ 13 CX,CY: -6/ 11 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 827 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 93.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 5.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 8. 15. 21. 26. 29. 32. 34. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. -1. -6. -12. -18. -21. -22. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -6. -7. -9. -13. -15. -15. -16. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 11. 15. 15. 9. 6. 4. 7. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 14.1 49.9 ** 2019 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL962019 INVEST 08/03/19 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 5.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.6 30.1 to 2.3 0.63 2.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 18.6 0.0 to 151.8 0.12 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.0 36.6 to 2.8 0.85 3.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.9 to -2.9 0.46 1.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 102.8 27.5 to 139.6 0.67 1.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 19.4 -29.7 to 185.9 0.23 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 62.8 100.0 to 0.0 0.37 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 190.6 895.4 to -55.0 0.74 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 1.7 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.7% 19.0% 13.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 11.8% 0.0% Logistic: 4.5% 10.4% 14.9% 9.9% 0.9% 4.1% 1.1% 0.3% Bayesian: 0.5% 0.5% 2.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.5% 2.4% 0.0% Consensus: 3.6% 10.0% 10.4% 3.3% 0.3% 1.5% 5.1% 0.1% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL962019 INVEST 08/03/19 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL962019 INVEST 08/03/2019 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 27 28 30 32 34 36 40 40 34 32 30 33 18HR AGO 25 24 25 27 29 31 33 37 37 31 29 27 30 12HR AGO 25 22 21 23 25 27 29 33 33 27 25 23 26 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 17 19 21 25 25 19 17 15 18 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT