* ATLANTIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL962019 08/03/19 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 29 31 33 37 41 44 45 44 41 41 45 V (KT) LAND 25 27 29 31 33 37 41 44 45 44 41 34 30 V (KT) LGEM 25 26 26 27 28 30 31 31 30 27 25 23 25 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 14 10 8 14 18 17 24 28 30 29 33 26 18 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -6 0 1 -3 -5 -3 0 1 -4 -7 -9 -5 -2 SHEAR DIR 342 346 321 330 335 322 301 304 306 278 290 269 294 SST (C) 27.1 27.1 27.2 27.6 27.9 28.3 28.4 28.5 28.7 28.8 28.7 28.8 29.3 POT. INT. (KT) 127 127 128 133 136 142 143 145 147 149 147 149 157 ADJ. POT. INT. 126 125 126 131 134 139 140 141 143 142 141 141 149 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.3 -53.3 -53.5 -53.5 -53.2 -53.6 -53.5 -53.9 -53.8 -54.2 -54.0 -54.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.2 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 8 8 8 9 9 9 7 9 9 11 11 700-500 MB RH 51 51 51 48 48 49 52 56 62 61 61 59 60 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 9 8 8 8 7 6 5 5 4 2 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 27 29 28 19 25 43 43 44 56 48 36 17 -2 200 MB DIV 52 54 28 17 25 5 32 39 35 34 28 -2 11 700-850 TADV -9 -11 -8 -5 -7 -5 3 -8 -3 3 7 0 -5 LAND (KM) 968 983 977 946 831 636 502 517 293 122 61 -55 -14 LAT (DEG N) 13.1 13.8 14.2 14.4 14.6 14.8 15.0 15.4 16.0 16.9 17.8 18.8 19.7 LONG(DEG W) 49.2 50.4 51.7 53.1 54.4 56.8 59.3 61.7 64.1 66.1 68.2 70.3 72.4 STM SPEED (KT) 14 13 13 13 12 12 12 12 11 10 11 11 12 HEAT CONTENT 7 7 9 16 31 41 40 37 30 61 63 35 49 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 14 CX,CY: -12/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 679 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 95.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 5.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 8. 15. 21. 26. 29. 32. 35. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 1. -3. -8. -13. -15. -16. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 4. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -9. -12. -15. -16. -17. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. 1. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 6. 8. 12. 16. 19. 20. 19. 16. 16. 20. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 13.1 49.2 ** 2019 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL962019 INVEST 08/03/19 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 5.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.9 30.1 to 2.3 0.62 2.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 14.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.09 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.7 36.6 to 2.8 0.86 3.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.3 2.9 to -2.9 0.55 1.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 103.2 27.5 to 139.6 0.68 1.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 35.2 -29.7 to 185.9 0.30 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 44.1 100.0 to 0.0 0.56 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 181.0 895.4 to -55.0 0.75 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 1.8 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.8% 19.8% 14.0% 8.9% 0.0% 0.0% 12.4% 0.0% Logistic: 11.5% 18.5% 21.2% 12.8% 2.0% 8.3% 2.8% 0.8% Bayesian: 3.9% 30.9% 12.9% 0.5% 0.2% 4.5% 4.3% 0.1% Consensus: 7.1% 23.1% 16.1% 7.4% 0.7% 4.3% 6.5% 0.3% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL962019 INVEST 08/03/19 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL962019 INVEST 08/03/2019 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 27 29 31 33 37 41 44 45 44 41 34 30 18HR AGO 25 24 26 28 30 34 38 41 42 41 38 31 27 12HR AGO 25 22 21 23 25 29 33 36 37 36 33 26 22 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 17 21 25 28 29 28 25 18 DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT