* ATLANTIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL962019 08/02/19 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 27 29 31 39 47 54 57 60 61 60 60 V (KT) LAND 25 26 27 29 31 39 47 54 57 60 61 60 60 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 26 27 28 31 34 37 40 42 41 40 39 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 6 10 15 18 15 14 15 13 22 19 24 27 23 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -3 -6 -7 -5 -8 -3 -2 0 1 -6 -7 -2 SHEAR DIR 2 360 358 360 5 359 355 315 313 310 295 288 289 SST (C) 27.5 27.6 27.4 27.3 27.4 27.7 28.1 28.5 28.7 28.6 28.2 28.6 28.6 POT. INT. (KT) 132 133 130 129 130 133 138 144 147 146 139 146 146 ADJ. POT. INT. 132 133 130 128 128 131 136 143 145 144 134 140 141 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -53.4 -53.8 -53.7 -53.5 -53.7 -53.5 -53.8 -53.7 -54.0 -54.1 -54.2 -54.3 200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 7 7 7 8 9 9 8 7 8 8 10 700-500 MB RH 53 54 54 55 55 55 54 55 60 65 65 67 61 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 8 8 8 8 8 9 8 7 7 6 5 4 850 MB ENV VOR 41 40 26 23 27 21 37 44 52 59 49 48 34 200 MB DIV 11 20 30 39 37 9 -3 38 54 42 48 28 16 700-850 TADV -4 -6 -7 -9 -7 -3 -2 1 -1 -4 3 -2 -6 LAND (KM) 955 896 845 829 813 795 670 456 348 389 371 234 158 LAT (DEG N) 10.6 11.0 11.4 11.9 12.3 12.8 13.1 13.2 13.7 14.2 15.2 15.9 16.8 LONG(DEG W) 45.7 47.1 48.4 49.6 50.8 53.1 55.3 57.6 59.8 62.0 64.0 65.8 68.0 STM SPEED (KT) 14 14 13 13 12 11 11 11 11 11 10 10 12 HEAT CONTENT 8 10 9 8 10 16 36 40 35 34 27 42 68 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 527 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 29.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 2.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 8. 15. 21. 26. 29. 32. 34. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 2. 0. -3. -5. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 5. 5. 4. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -6. -6. -8. -11. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 4. 6. 14. 22. 29. 32. 35. 36. 35. 35. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 10.6 45.7 ** 2019 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL962019 INVEST 08/02/19 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 4.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.1 30.1 to 2.3 0.61 1.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 9.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.06 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.1 36.6 to 2.8 0.46 1.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.6 2.9 to -2.9 0.60 1.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 105.2 27.5 to 139.6 0.69 1.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 27.4 -29.7 to 185.9 0.26 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 3.0 100.0 to 0.0 0.97 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 134.0 895.4 to -55.0 0.80 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.5 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.0% 16.0% 11.2% 7.2% 0.0% 0.0% 10.6% 0.0% Logistic: 2.9% 13.1% 6.7% 1.7% 0.7% 5.0% 7.2% 6.8% Bayesian: 0.4% 2.5% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 2.1% Consensus: 2.4% 10.6% 6.2% 3.0% 0.3% 1.7% 6.0% 3.0% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL962019 INVEST 08/02/19 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL962019 INVEST 08/02/2019 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 26 27 29 31 39 47 54 57 60 61 60 60 18HR AGO 25 24 25 27 29 37 45 52 55 58 59 58 58 12HR AGO 25 22 21 23 25 33 41 48 51 54 55 54 54 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 17 25 33 40 43 46 47 46 46 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT