* ATLANTIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL962019 08/02/19 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 26 28 30 36 44 52 56 58 59 61 61 V (KT) LAND 25 25 26 28 30 36 44 52 56 58 59 61 61 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 26 26 27 29 32 36 39 42 43 42 42 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 11 13 16 20 16 18 12 19 18 22 20 21 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -3 -3 -6 -8 -8 -7 -2 0 0 -3 -4 -4 SHEAR DIR 347 1 360 7 5 28 12 349 321 318 307 279 296 SST (C) 27.7 27.5 27.5 27.5 27.3 27.4 27.7 28.1 28.3 28.7 28.7 28.6 28.4 POT. INT. (KT) 134 131 131 131 128 129 132 138 141 147 147 145 142 ADJ. POT. INT. 134 131 131 131 127 126 129 135 137 143 143 140 137 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.9 -53.4 -53.8 -53.8 -53.6 -53.9 -53.6 -53.8 -53.7 -54.2 -54.1 -54.4 200 MB VXT (C) -0.3 -0.3 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 7 6 7 7 9 8 8 6 7 7 700-500 MB RH 54 57 57 58 58 59 58 56 59 64 72 71 71 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 9 8 8 8 8 8 8 7 7 6 6 5 850 MB ENV VOR 44 40 33 21 18 21 12 30 33 32 34 31 33 200 MB DIV -37 13 28 35 38 30 -2 -16 27 49 39 46 13 700-850 TADV -5 -5 -6 -7 -8 -5 -3 -1 0 -7 -1 -4 -2 LAND (KM) 1042 976 930 875 854 814 786 703 508 375 358 478 302 LAT (DEG N) 10.2 10.6 11.0 11.3 11.8 12.4 12.7 12.9 13.0 13.4 14.0 15.0 15.9 LONG(DEG W) 44.1 45.4 46.6 47.8 48.9 51.0 53.0 54.9 56.9 58.8 60.6 62.3 64.1 STM SPEED (KT) 13 13 12 12 12 10 9 10 9 9 10 9 10 HEAT CONTENT 10 8 9 9 8 10 16 30 39 39 35 33 28 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 523 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 26.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 8. 15. 20. 25. 29. 32. 34. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. -1. -3. -4. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 7. 7. 6. 5. 5. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 5. 5. 4. 4. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -9. -10. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 3. 5. 11. 19. 27. 31. 33. 34. 36. 36. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 10.2 44.1 ** 2019 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL962019 INVEST 08/02/19 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 4.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.5 30.1 to 2.3 0.60 1.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 8.8 0.0 to 151.8 0.06 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.9 36.6 to 2.8 0.58 1.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.4 2.9 to -2.9 0.56 1.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 105.8 27.5 to 139.6 0.70 1.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 15.4 -29.7 to 185.9 0.21 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 1.5 100.0 to 0.0 0.99 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 116.0 895.4 to -55.0 0.82 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.5 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.7% 16.6% 11.8% 7.8% 0.0% 0.0% 9.9% 0.0% Logistic: 2.2% 9.1% 4.6% 1.2% 0.5% 4.4% 7.2% 10.7% Bayesian: 0.3% 2.1% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.2% 0.3% Consensus: 2.4% 9.3% 5.6% 3.0% 0.2% 1.5% 5.8% 3.7% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL962019 INVEST 08/02/19 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL962019 INVEST 08/02/2019 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 25 26 28 30 36 44 52 56 58 59 61 61 18HR AGO 25 24 25 27 29 35 43 51 55 57 58 60 60 12HR AGO 25 22 21 23 25 31 39 47 51 53 54 56 56 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 17 23 31 39 43 45 46 48 48 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT