* ATLANTIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL962019 08/02/19 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 25 26 28 35 44 53 59 61 63 65 63 V (KT) LAND 25 25 25 26 28 35 44 53 59 61 63 65 63 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 26 26 27 29 32 36 41 44 47 47 46 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 5 9 11 11 14 18 14 16 14 20 16 21 28 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -2 -3 -3 -6 -8 -8 -4 -5 -3 0 -3 0 SHEAR DIR 22 360 10 7 6 15 22 6 332 324 306 305 281 SST (C) 28.1 28.0 28.0 28.2 28.1 27.7 27.5 28.0 28.1 28.2 28.3 28.3 28.1 POT. INT. (KT) 139 137 137 140 139 133 130 137 138 140 141 141 139 ADJ. POT. INT. 139 137 137 140 139 131 127 134 136 137 139 137 134 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.9 -53.1 -53.6 -54.0 -53.7 -53.9 -53.6 -53.8 -53.8 -54.1 -54.2 -54.3 200 MB VXT (C) -0.4 -0.5 -0.4 -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 6 6 6 6 7 8 8 8 6 7 8 700-500 MB RH 56 56 59 59 60 61 61 59 59 64 71 69 69 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 9 8 7 7 8 8 9 8 7 7 7 5 850 MB ENV VOR 43 42 35 29 21 19 14 22 26 37 30 40 40 200 MB DIV -65 -45 3 29 41 43 28 -7 22 49 54 63 31 700-850 TADV -6 -5 -3 -4 -6 -7 -3 -4 0 -4 -6 -2 -3 LAND (KM) 1151 1067 1011 961 923 873 818 791 646 484 393 496 292 LAT (DEG N) 9.8 10.1 10.5 10.9 11.3 12.2 12.6 12.8 13.0 13.5 14.1 15.2 16.2 LONG(DEG W) 42.5 43.7 44.8 46.0 47.1 49.3 51.4 53.4 55.5 57.5 59.7 61.8 63.9 STM SPEED (KT) 11 12 12 12 12 11 10 10 10 11 11 11 12 HEAT CONTENT 16 13 12 13 14 11 12 20 38 36 32 34 26 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 547 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 24.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 2.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 3. 8. 15. 21. 26. 29. 32. 34. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. 2. 0. -2. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 5. 7. 7. 7. 6. 5. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 6. 6. 5. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -5. -7. -8. -9. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 3. 10. 19. 28. 34. 36. 38. 40. 38. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 9.8 42.5 ** 2019 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL962019 INVEST 08/02/19 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 5.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.1 30.1 to 2.3 0.72 2.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 13.6 0.0 to 151.8 0.09 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.4 36.6 to 2.8 0.60 2.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.5 2.9 to -2.9 0.58 1.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 113.5 27.5 to 139.6 0.77 1.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : -7.4 -29.7 to 185.9 0.10 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 107.8 895.4 to -55.0 0.83 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 1.7 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 18.6% 13.0% 8.8% 0.0% 0.0% 11.3% 0.0% Logistic: 2.1% 6.7% 3.4% 0.8% 0.3% 4.2% 6.7% 13.9% Bayesian: 0.2% 5.5% 1.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.3% 0.1% 1.5% Consensus: 0.8% 10.2% 5.9% 3.2% 0.1% 1.5% 6.1% 5.1% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL962019 INVEST 08/02/19 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL962019 INVEST 08/02/2019 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 25 25 26 28 35 44 53 59 61 63 65 63 18HR AGO 25 24 24 25 27 34 43 52 58 60 62 64 62 12HR AGO 25 22 21 22 24 31 40 49 55 57 59 61 59 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 17 24 33 42 48 50 52 54 52 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT