* ATLANTIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL962019 08/02/19 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 25 27 29 36 46 56 64 68 71 75 76 V (KT) LAND 25 25 25 27 29 36 46 56 64 68 71 75 76 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 26 26 27 30 34 38 44 51 56 60 61 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 5 7 7 7 16 13 16 9 16 16 15 14 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 -2 -2 -1 -7 -5 -7 -3 0 -1 0 -2 SHEAR DIR 99 40 19 28 359 3 27 23 19 330 329 315 287 SST (C) 28.0 28.1 28.0 28.1 28.2 27.9 27.7 28.0 28.0 28.0 28.3 28.3 28.1 POT. INT. (KT) 138 139 137 139 140 136 133 137 137 137 141 141 138 ADJ. POT. INT. 138 139 137 139 140 136 131 135 135 135 139 138 132 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.8 -53.1 -53.2 -53.7 -54.0 -53.8 -54.1 -53.7 -54.0 -53.8 -54.3 -54.2 200 MB VXT (C) -0.4 -0.5 -0.6 -0.5 -0.3 -0.1 -0.2 -0.3 -0.3 -0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 5 6 6 6 7 7 9 8 8 6 7 700-500 MB RH 54 55 54 56 57 57 59 60 59 60 64 71 71 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 8 8 8 7 7 7 8 8 7 7 7 7 850 MB ENV VOR 47 45 45 40 37 21 21 19 38 45 33 43 46 200 MB DIV -68 -70 -52 0 18 29 12 -3 11 43 52 46 51 700-850 TADV -3 -6 -5 -5 -5 -6 -3 -4 0 -1 -5 -1 -4 LAND (KM) 1227 1115 1034 981 935 846 788 740 650 440 282 294 389 LAT (DEG N) 9.7 9.8 10.1 10.5 10.9 11.6 12.1 12.3 12.4 12.4 12.8 13.4 14.2 LONG(DEG W) 41.6 42.9 44.1 45.2 46.4 48.7 50.9 53.1 55.2 57.3 59.4 61.5 63.2 STM SPEED (KT) 13 12 12 12 12 12 10 10 11 10 11 10 9 HEAT CONTENT 19 15 12 12 14 12 13 20 29 25 25 29 28 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 524 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 17.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 6.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 3. 8. 16. 21. 26. 29. 32. 34. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 9. 8. 8. 8. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -5. -6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 2. 4. 11. 21. 31. 39. 43. 46. 50. 51. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 9.7 41.6 ** 2019 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL962019 INVEST 08/02/19 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.9 30.1 to 2.3 0.83 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 14.4 0.0 to 151.8 0.09 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.9 36.6 to 2.8 0.58 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.3 2.9 to -2.9 0.54 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 113.7 27.5 to 139.6 0.77 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -34.4 -29.7 to 185.9 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 120.0 895.4 to -55.0 0.82 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 12.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.8% 11.3% 7.2% 2.2% 1.0% 7.2% 9.6% 21.2% Bayesian: 0.0% 4.9% 1.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.3% 0.1% 1.6% Consensus: 0.9% 5.4% 2.7% 0.8% 0.3% 2.5% 7.2% 7.6% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL962019 INVEST 08/02/19 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL962019 INVEST 08/02/2019 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 25 25 27 29 36 46 56 64 68 71 75 76 18HR AGO 25 24 24 26 28 35 45 55 63 67 70 74 75 12HR AGO 25 22 21 23 25 32 42 52 60 64 67 71 72 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 17 24 34 44 52 56 59 63 64 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT