* ATLANTIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL962019 08/01/19 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 25 27 28 34 43 52 60 65 68 72 71 V (KT) LAND 25 25 25 27 28 34 43 52 60 65 68 72 71 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 25 25 26 28 32 37 43 50 57 63 65 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 14 8 4 3 2 6 10 10 9 5 12 12 14 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -2 -1 -1 0 -4 -5 -6 -5 -1 -2 -2 -4 SHEAR DIR 89 75 46 1 359 341 2 6 27 333 333 315 296 SST (C) 27.7 27.7 27.9 28.0 27.9 27.9 27.7 27.4 27.7 28.1 28.0 28.3 28.4 POT. INT. (KT) 132 133 136 137 136 136 133 129 133 138 137 141 143 ADJ. POT. INT. 132 133 136 137 136 136 131 126 130 137 134 140 140 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.7 -52.8 -53.0 -53.2 -54.0 -53.7 -53.9 -53.9 -54.2 -54.0 -54.3 -54.2 200 MB VXT (C) -0.4 -0.5 -0.6 -0.6 -0.5 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 5 6 6 7 7 8 8 8 7 700-500 MB RH 58 57 56 54 54 57 59 61 63 62 63 70 71 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 9 8 8 8 7 7 8 8 7 8 7 6 850 MB ENV VOR 45 43 40 29 26 4 -3 3 9 8 18 24 28 200 MB DIV -74 -80 -76 -52 -14 21 13 16 11 24 31 43 43 700-850 TADV -2 -4 -4 -3 -3 -3 -4 -2 -3 -1 -5 -4 -2 LAND (KM) 1443 1351 1273 1199 1150 1063 980 887 797 705 509 334 322 LAT (DEG N) 9.6 9.7 10.0 10.4 11.0 11.9 12.6 12.8 12.7 12.5 12.6 12.9 13.7 LONG(DEG W) 39.3 40.3 41.3 42.4 43.5 45.8 48.0 50.3 52.4 54.5 56.7 58.8 61.0 STM SPEED (KT) 9 10 11 12 12 12 11 11 10 11 10 11 11 HEAT CONTENT 17 20 20 17 13 14 13 9 15 26 32 27 30 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 600 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 6.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 1.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 10.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 8. 15. 21. 25. 29. 31. 34. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 10. 9. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 5. 5. 4. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 8. 7. 7. 7. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -7. -7. -9. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. 2. 3. 9. 18. 27. 35. 40. 43. 47. 46. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 9.6 39.3 ** 2019 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL962019 INVEST 08/01/19 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.4 30.1 to 2.3 0.85 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 17.4 0.0 to 151.8 0.11 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.7 36.6 to 2.8 0.88 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.1 2.9 to -2.9 0.49 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 109.8 27.5 to 139.6 0.73 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -59.2 -29.7 to 185.9 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 120.4 895.4 to -55.0 0.82 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 3.2% 11.3% 8.5% 3.0% 1.3% 8.6% 6.2% 18.6% Bayesian: 0.0% 11.6% 2.1% 0.3% 0.1% 0.4% 0.0% 0.4% Consensus: 1.1% 7.6% 3.5% 1.1% 0.5% 3.0% 2.1% 6.3% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL962019 INVEST 08/01/19 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL962019 INVEST 08/01/2019 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 25 25 27 28 34 43 52 60 65 68 72 71 18HR AGO 25 24 24 26 27 33 42 51 59 64 67 71 70 12HR AGO 25 22 21 23 24 30 39 48 56 61 64 68 67 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 16 22 31 40 48 53 56 60 59 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT