* ATLANTIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL962019 08/01/19 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 25 27 29 35 43 52 60 66 71 75 76 V (KT) LAND 25 25 25 27 29 35 43 52 60 66 71 75 76 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 25 26 26 29 32 37 43 50 58 66 71 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 15 14 9 6 4 6 13 10 14 6 11 14 18 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -6 -6 -3 -2 -2 -1 -5 -4 -8 -6 -1 -3 -1 SHEAR DIR 81 83 79 54 8 360 358 24 23 31 324 319 311 SST (C) 27.8 27.7 27.8 28.0 28.1 28.1 28.0 27.6 27.7 28.1 28.1 28.2 28.5 POT. INT. (KT) 135 133 134 137 139 139 137 132 133 138 139 140 145 ADJ. POT. INT. 135 133 134 137 139 139 137 130 130 136 137 139 145 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -52.8 -52.8 -52.9 -53.0 -53.7 -53.9 -53.8 -54.0 -53.8 -54.2 -53.9 -54.2 200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 -0.4 -0.5 -0.5 -0.6 -0.3 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 0.0 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 4 5 5 5 5 6 6 6 7 8 8 8 7 700-500 MB RH 63 59 57 56 54 57 59 62 63 64 64 68 73 MODEL VTX (KT) 11 10 10 9 9 8 8 8 8 8 7 7 7 850 MB ENV VOR 56 49 47 47 46 34 13 10 0 10 12 22 30 200 MB DIV -55 -80 -85 -67 -46 4 20 13 8 0 25 40 26 700-850 TADV -3 -2 -4 -6 -5 -4 -5 -3 -3 -3 -1 -6 -1 LAND (KM) 1488 1369 1273 1184 1095 1002 923 860 790 758 562 374 356 LAT (DEG N) 9.5 9.5 9.5 9.6 9.9 10.9 11.7 12.3 12.5 12.7 12.9 13.3 14.0 LONG(DEG W) 38.8 40.0 41.0 42.0 43.2 45.4 47.6 49.8 51.9 54.0 56.3 58.7 61.2 STM SPEED (KT) 13 11 10 11 12 12 11 11 10 11 11 12 13 HEAT CONTENT 16 20 21 18 14 12 14 10 14 24 38 31 32 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 497 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 3.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 7.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 8. 16. 21. 26. 29. 32. 34. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 8. 8. 8. 7. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 8. 10. 10. 10. 9. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -10. -11. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -7. -8. -8. -7. -8. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. 2. 4. 10. 18. 27. 35. 41. 46. 50. 51. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 9.5 38.8 ** 2019 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL962019 INVEST 08/01/19 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.6 30.1 to 2.3 0.74 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 17.8 0.0 to 151.8 0.12 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.5 36.6 to 2.8 0.86 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.4 2.9 to -2.9 0.57 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 110.6 27.5 to 139.6 0.74 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -66.6 -29.7 to 185.9 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 113.4 895.4 to -55.0 0.82 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.8% 10.6% 7.8% 2.0% 1.0% 7.4% 6.4% 18.4% Bayesian: 0.0% 9.5% 2.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.4% 0.0% 0.5% Consensus: 1.0% 6.7% 3.3% 0.7% 0.3% 2.6% 2.1% 6.3% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2.0% 4.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL962019 INVEST 08/01/19 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL962019 INVEST 08/01/2019 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 25 25 27 29 35 43 52 60 66 71 75 76 18HR AGO 25 24 24 26 28 34 42 51 59 65 70 74 75 12HR AGO 25 22 21 23 25 31 39 48 56 62 67 71 72 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 17 23 31 40 48 54 59 63 64 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT