* ATLANTIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL962019 08/01/19 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 26 28 30 36 45 54 65 71 74 77 77 V (KT) LAND 25 25 26 28 30 36 45 54 65 71 74 77 77 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 25 26 27 29 33 39 47 56 62 65 65 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 17 15 14 10 8 6 6 11 9 9 15 18 20 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -8 -5 -3 -3 -4 -1 -3 -4 -3 0 -1 0 2 SHEAR DIR 90 80 80 71 51 21 9 33 5 341 287 287 281 SST (C) 27.8 27.8 27.8 27.6 27.6 27.7 26.6 26.9 27.2 27.5 28.1 28.2 28.3 POT. INT. (KT) 134 133 133 132 132 133 121 124 127 131 139 141 142 ADJ. POT. INT. 134 130 132 132 132 133 120 122 125 129 137 138 139 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.3 -53.0 -53.0 -53.0 -53.3 -54.0 -53.7 -53.9 -53.5 -54.0 -53.9 -54.1 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.2 -0.4 -0.5 -0.6 -0.5 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 0.0 0.1 0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 4 5 5 6 6 6 7 8 9 8 700-500 MB RH 67 64 62 58 57 56 59 63 62 62 60 59 63 MODEL VTX (KT) 12 12 11 11 11 10 10 11 13 14 13 13 12 850 MB ENV VOR 61 67 55 57 54 38 17 9 8 13 4 12 26 200 MB DIV 1 -33 -41 -63 -60 -40 13 16 41 16 16 20 26 700-850 TADV -1 -1 -1 -2 -3 -2 -3 -2 -1 -4 -8 -8 -12 LAND (KM) 1629 1561 1493 1402 1316 1136 1039 977 947 948 794 663 630 LAT (DEG N) 9.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 37.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 7 9 11 12 12 12 12 12 13 13 13 13 HEAT CONTENT 12 14 17 20 22 11 2 6 8 14 43 36 40 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 456 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 11.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 6.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 8. 15. 20. 25. 28. 31. 33. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 7. 7. 7. 7. 5. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 5. 4. 4. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 9. 8. 7. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -6. -7. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 3. 5. 11. 20. 29. 40. 46. 49. 52. 52. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 9.5 37.4 ** 2019 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL962019 INVEST 08/01/19 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.7 30.1 to 2.3 0.63 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 17.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.11 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.5 36.6 to 2.8 0.77 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.0 2.9 to -2.9 0.67 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 107.0 27.5 to 139.6 0.71 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -39.2 -29.7 to 185.9 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 99.2 895.4 to -55.0 0.84 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 3.0% 13.2% 8.5% 2.0% 1.3% 8.3% 9.6% 21.8% Bayesian: 0.1% 9.5% 0.8% 0.1% 0.0% 0.4% 0.0% 0.6% Consensus: 3.1% 7.6% 3.1% 0.7% 0.4% 2.9% 3.2% 7.5% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2.0% 5.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL962019 INVEST 08/01/19 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL962019 INVEST 08/01/2019 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 25 26 28 30 36 45 54 65 71 74 77 77 18HR AGO 25 24 25 27 29 35 44 53 64 70 73 76 76 12HR AGO 25 22 21 23 25 31 40 49 60 66 69 72 72 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 17 23 32 41 52 58 61 64 64 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT