* ATLANTIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL962019 08/01/19 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 27 28 30 36 42 51 61 68 76 81 83 V (KT) LAND 25 26 27 28 30 36 42 51 61 68 76 81 83 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 25 26 26 28 31 35 41 50 60 69 75 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 22 16 16 16 12 7 6 9 7 10 5 11 14 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -11 -7 -6 -5 -4 1 -2 -5 -5 -4 -3 -2 -1 SHEAR DIR 97 96 66 63 50 4 359 5 44 12 312 323 290 SST (C) 27.7 27.8 27.8 27.8 27.7 27.8 27.3 26.4 26.8 27.2 27.5 28.0 28.1 POT. INT. (KT) 133 134 134 133 132 135 128 118 122 127 131 138 139 ADJ. POT. INT. 133 134 133 132 131 135 127 115 118 124 128 136 136 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.5 -53.2 -53.0 -53.0 -53.0 -53.6 -53.9 -53.8 -53.9 -53.6 -54.0 -53.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 -0.1 -0.2 -0.3 -0.3 -0.6 -0.3 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.1 0.0 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 4 5 5 5 6 5 6 7 8 8 700-500 MB RH 72 69 64 61 59 58 60 63 69 66 65 64 63 MODEL VTX (KT) 11 12 12 11 11 11 9 9 11 12 14 14 14 850 MB ENV VOR 59 66 65 58 56 44 21 3 5 10 14 8 19 200 MB DIV 36 5 -22 -34 -48 -72 -12 5 18 -1 5 11 30 700-850 TADV 0 0 -2 -2 -4 -2 -2 0 -2 -3 -5 -5 -6 LAND (KM) 1789 1674 1560 1479 1399 1260 1181 1144 1084 1031 997 824 691 LAT (DEG N) 9.7 9.6 9.3 9.3 9.3 10.1 11.4 12.6 13.4 14.0 14.5 15.1 16.0 LONG(DEG W) 35.9 37.0 38.0 38.8 39.6 41.5 43.5 45.5 47.5 49.8 52.2 54.8 57.5 STM SPEED (KT) 12 11 9 8 9 12 11 11 11 12 12 14 13 HEAT CONTENT 10 11 15 19 22 21 10 5 9 8 14 42 35 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 494 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 10.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 6.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 8. 15. 20. 24. 28. 30. 32. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 6. 7. 7. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 6. 5. 5. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 9. 10. 10. 10. 9. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -4. -3. -2. -2. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -6. -7. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 5. 11. 17. 26. 36. 43. 51. 56. 58. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 9.7 35.9 ** 2019 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL962019 INVEST 08/01/19 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 5.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 16.2 30.1 to 2.3 0.50 1.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 15.4 0.0 to 151.8 0.10 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.1 36.6 to 2.8 0.75 2.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.9 2.9 to -2.9 0.65 1.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 107.7 27.5 to 139.6 0.72 1.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : -12.6 -29.7 to 185.9 0.08 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 91.8 895.4 to -55.0 0.85 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 1.7 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.5% 18.2% 12.8% 8.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.6% 13.3% 7.4% 1.6% 1.1% 5.8% 9.8% 23.6% Bayesian: 0.2% 6.7% 0.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.4% 0.1% 0.8% Consensus: 2.8% 12.7% 7.0% 3.5% 0.4% 2.0% 3.3% 8.1% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL962019 INVEST 08/01/19 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL962019 INVEST 08/01/2019 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 26 27 28 30 36 42 51 61 68 76 81 83 18HR AGO 25 24 25 26 28 34 40 49 59 66 74 79 81 12HR AGO 25 22 21 22 24 30 36 45 55 62 70 75 77 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 17 23 29 38 48 55 63 68 70 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT