* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL952021 11/02/21 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 29 27 25 24 22 19 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 30 29 27 25 24 22 19 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 30 30 28 26 24 21 20 19 18 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 33 31 24 17 15 18 24 25 35 37 45 49 48 58 76 82 88 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 15 12 12 9 4 1 6 4 4 1 2 -3 2 -11 -22 -28 -26 SHEAR DIR 215 228 245 261 258 253 238 225 236 256 257 253 247 238 243 239 243 SST (C) 26.9 26.8 26.6 26.6 26.5 26.5 26.2 26.1 25.8 25.4 25.3 25.2 25.2 25.1 25.0 24.8 24.7 POT. INT. (KT) 123 121 119 119 119 118 115 113 110 106 104 104 105 104 102 100 99 ADJ. POT. INT. 116 114 111 111 110 108 104 101 98 93 92 92 93 92 88 87 85 200 MB T (C) -54.9 -55.2 -55.2 -55.3 -55.7 -56.1 -55.9 -55.5 -55.3 -54.7 -54.7 -54.7 -54.8 -55.4 -56.4 -56.4 -56.1 200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 -0.3 -0.2 -0.3 -0.3 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 5 5 5 5 4 4 3 2 2 2 2 2 700-500 MB RH 59 60 58 59 61 63 60 57 51 49 46 43 37 35 36 34 32 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 5 4 3 2 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -15 -38 -56 -70 -76 -77 -72 -42 -29 -12 -3 -1 -2 -10 -9 -28 -33 200 MB DIV 40 13 17 30 38 49 23 38 34 1 -4 2 12 -3 4 0 -20 700-850 TADV 3 5 8 11 10 8 2 -2 -9 -4 -3 3 2 1 -1 -4 -2 LAND (KM) 1761 1805 1810 1810 1787 1646 1483 1337 1193 1079 994 936 885 863 847 841 828 LAT (DEG N) 15.2 16.0 16.8 17.7 18.6 20.2 21.2 21.6 21.7 21.7 21.9 22.4 23.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 33.9 34.3 34.3 34.2 33.9 32.8 31.3 29.9 28.5 27.4 26.6 26.0 25.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 8 9 9 10 9 8 7 6 4 4 5 5 6 3 3 3 HEAT CONTENT 10 5 2 1 1 3 4 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 9 CX,CY: -5/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 764 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 14.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 7. 10. 14. 16. 17. 17. 17. 16. 15. 13. 11. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 0. -3. -8. -14. -21. -27. -32. -39. -48. -57. -65. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -5. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -7. -7. -6. -6. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. 8. 10. 11. 12. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -9. -10. -11. -12. -12. -12. -12. -12. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -7. -6. -6. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -3. -5. -6. -8. -11. -13. -16. -20. -23. -26. -28. -31. -33. -38. -43. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 15.2 33.9 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL952021 INVEST 11/02/21 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 1.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 24.2 30.1 to 2.3 0.21 0.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 3.8 0.0 to 151.8 0.03 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.3 36.6 to 2.8 0.66 0.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 0.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 150.2 895.4 to -55.0 0.78 0.8 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.8 2.9 to -2.9 0.19 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 82.5 28.3 to 146.3 0.46 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 27.6 -29.7 to 185.9 0.27 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 36.2 100.0 to 0.0 0.64 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.5 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 0.5 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.7 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 4% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 2% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 2.3% 5.6% 4.6% 3.8% 1.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.3% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.9% 2.0% 1.6% 1.3% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL952021 INVEST 11/02/2021 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 29 27 25 24 22 19 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 30 29 27 25 24 22 19 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 30 27 26 24 23 21 18 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 19 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT