* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL952021 11/01/21 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 23 21 19 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 25 23 21 19 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 25 24 22 20 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 28 32 30 24 18 16 19 25 33 41 45 50 55 60 84 93 88 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 15 15 14 13 9 2 3 6 3 2 4 1 -2 -7 -29 -34 -21 SHEAR DIR 216 213 224 241 257 255 250 236 243 255 257 256 251 243 241 236 233 SST (C) 26.9 26.9 26.9 26.7 26.5 26.4 26.5 26.1 26.0 25.8 25.5 25.3 25.2 25.2 25.1 25.0 24.7 POT. INT. (KT) 122 122 122 120 118 117 118 113 112 109 107 105 105 104 103 103 101 ADJ. POT. INT. 116 114 114 112 110 108 107 102 100 97 95 93 93 92 91 90 88 200 MB T (C) -54.6 -54.9 -55.3 -55.2 -55.3 -55.8 -55.8 -55.8 -55.1 -54.8 -54.5 -54.6 -54.6 -54.5 -55.4 -56.6 -56.4 200 MB VXT (C) -0.3 -0.2 -0.3 -0.3 -0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 6 6 7 6 6 5 5 4 4 3 2 2 1 1 1 700-500 MB RH 60 60 61 60 60 63 61 60 53 50 47 43 39 37 37 38 38 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 5 4 4 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 5 -11 -37 -55 -75 -91 -79 -69 -45 -32 -9 -1 -3 -13 -18 -23 -10 200 MB DIV 71 56 22 15 22 37 46 17 29 6 10 -1 9 -1 2 31 41 700-850 TADV 3 3 6 7 7 8 6 0 -5 -4 -3 2 0 1 -8 -7 -11 LAND (KM) 1700 1740 1750 1753 1751 1710 1583 1443 1306 1192 1099 1017 936 884 828 784 730 LAT (DEG N) 14.3 14.9 15.6 16.3 17.2 18.8 20.2 20.9 21.2 21.2 21.3 21.7 22.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 33.3 33.7 33.8 33.8 33.7 33.2 32.2 30.9 29.6 28.5 27.6 26.8 26.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 8 7 7 8 9 9 8 6 6 4 4 5 6 5 4 5 5 HEAT CONTENT 8 10 9 3 2 1 6 3 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 10 CX,CY: -7/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 813 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 12.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 7. 12. 16. 19. 21. 22. 21. 21. 20. 19. 17. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. -3. -8. -15. -22. -28. -34. -42. -52. -63. -71. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -6. -5. -4. -3. -3. -1. 1. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8. -7. -7. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. 8. 10. 11. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -10. -11. -12. -13. -13. -13. -13. -13. -13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2. -3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -7. -7. -6. -6. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -2. -4. -6. -9. -11. -13. -15. -17. -21. -24. -28. -31. -34. -37. -44. -50. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 14.3 33.3 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL952021 INVEST 11/01/21 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 26.4 30.1 to 2.3 0.13 0.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 6.4 0.0 to 151.8 0.04 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.9 36.6 to 2.8 0.61 0.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 119.2 895.4 to -55.0 0.82 0.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.7 2.9 to -2.9 0.21 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 88.2 28.3 to 146.3 0.51 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 37.2 -29.7 to 185.9 0.31 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 35.6 100.0 to 0.0 0.64 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.5 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 1% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.6% 3.5% 2.5% 0.9% 0.0% 0.0% 3.8% 0.0% Logistic: 0.3% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.6% 1.3% 0.9% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 1.3% 0.0% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL952021 INVEST 11/01/2021 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 23 21 19 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 25 24 22 20 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 25 22 21 19 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT