* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL952021 11/01/21 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 23 21 19 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 25 23 21 19 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 25 24 22 20 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 25 27 30 31 27 21 24 32 38 46 44 50 53 58 64 83 82 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 14 15 14 12 15 7 -1 2 1 -1 2 2 -1 -1 -9 -24 -22 SHEAR DIR 223 220 215 221 231 232 239 226 236 243 253 258 256 258 252 249 247 SST (C) 27.0 26.9 27.0 26.8 26.5 26.4 26.4 26.0 25.9 25.7 25.4 25.3 25.1 24.9 24.8 24.5 24.4 POT. INT. (KT) 124 122 123 121 118 117 117 112 111 109 106 105 104 102 101 98 97 ADJ. POT. INT. 119 116 115 113 110 108 106 101 99 98 95 94 93 91 89 86 85 200 MB T (C) -54.9 -54.8 -55.1 -55.4 -55.4 -55.7 -55.9 -55.9 -55.4 -55.1 -54.5 -54.6 -54.8 -54.8 -54.9 -55.4 -56.2 200 MB VXT (C) -0.4 -0.4 -0.3 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 7 6 6 6 5 5 4 4 4 4 2 2 1 1 1 700-500 MB RH 63 62 62 64 62 63 62 60 58 53 50 46 40 34 30 29 29 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 6 6 4 4 2 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 14 -4 -25 -48 -67 -87 -71 -67 -49 -24 -13 0 -8 -9 -13 0 0 200 MB DIV 86 77 51 30 22 33 50 39 21 5 -1 -16 2 -8 -22 -16 20 700-850 TADV -2 3 2 6 9 7 6 0 -3 -6 -3 -1 3 2 -1 -7 -6 LAND (KM) 1630 1688 1707 1708 1703 1676 1550 1415 1279 1164 1049 944 841 740 653 576 515 LAT (DEG N) 13.8 14.5 15.2 15.9 16.7 18.3 19.6 20.4 20.6 20.6 20.7 21.0 21.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 32.6 33.2 33.4 33.4 33.3 32.8 31.8 30.6 29.3 28.2 27.1 26.1 25.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 8 7 8 9 8 8 6 5 6 5 5 6 5 5 3 3 HEAT CONTENT 7 10 12 7 2 1 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 11 CX,CY: -8/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 776 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 8.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 7. 12. 16. 19. 21. 22. 22. 21. 20. 19. 17. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. -0. -6. -12. -20. -28. -33. -39. -46. -53. -62. -70. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -7. -8. -7. -5. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2. -0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -8. -8. -9. -9. -8. -8. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 5. 6. 8. 9. 10. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -9. -11. -12. -13. -14. -14. -14. -14. -14. -14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -6. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -2. -4. -6. -8. -13. -16. -20. -24. -28. -32. -35. -38. -41. -43. -47. -51. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 13.8 32.6 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL952021 INVEST 11/01/21 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 0.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 28.0 30.1 to 2.3 0.07 0.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 7.6 0.0 to 151.8 0.05 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.2 36.6 to 2.8 0.60 0.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 112.0 895.4 to -55.0 0.82 0.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.4 2.9 to -2.9 0.26 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 89.7 28.3 to 146.3 0.52 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 53.2 -29.7 to 185.9 0.38 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 19.9 100.0 to 0.0 0.80 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 0.3 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.5 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.6% 7.6% 2.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.4% 0.4% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.7% 2.7% 0.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL952021 INVEST 11/01/2021 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 23 21 19 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 25 24 22 20 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 25 22 21 19 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT