* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL952021 11/01/21 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 24 22 21 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 25 24 22 21 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 25 24 23 21 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 23 27 28 30 29 18 21 24 31 36 43 44 49 50 52 69 78 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 11 14 18 18 13 14 0 5 4 5 2 2 0 0 1 -15 -25 SHEAR DIR 212 220 221 219 223 229 239 237 229 237 249 253 256 255 257 250 252 SST (C) 27.2 27.0 27.0 26.8 26.5 26.4 26.4 26.0 25.9 25.6 25.4 25.2 25.0 25.0 24.9 24.5 24.3 POT. INT. (KT) 127 124 123 121 118 117 117 112 111 108 106 105 103 103 102 98 95 ADJ. POT. INT. 125 119 116 114 110 109 107 101 99 96 94 93 93 92 90 85 82 200 MB T (C) -55.1 -55.0 -54.9 -55.2 -55.6 -55.5 -56.0 -55.9 -55.8 -55.5 -55.0 -54.7 -54.8 -55.1 -55.6 -56.1 -56.6 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.3 -0.2 0.0 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 5 5 5 4 4 4 4 3 2 1 1 1 700-500 MB RH 63 63 62 63 65 63 64 61 59 55 51 49 45 40 33 28 29 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 6 6 6 5 3 2 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 25 12 -10 -32 -56 -88 -85 -74 -62 -31 -19 4 -1 -13 -21 -26 -7 200 MB DIV 85 82 69 54 45 42 36 38 23 35 16 5 -15 15 -14 -23 -12 700-850 TADV -2 -2 2 1 4 8 11 2 -3 -5 -3 -1 1 0 0 -8 -7 LAND (KM) 1569 1647 1697 1708 1712 1684 1559 1413 1277 1162 1058 954 852 758 675 622 590 LAT (DEG N) 13.5 14.2 14.9 15.7 16.5 18.2 19.7 20.6 20.9 21.0 21.0 21.4 22.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 32.0 32.8 33.3 33.4 33.4 32.9 31.9 30.6 29.3 28.2 27.2 26.2 25.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 12 9 8 8 8 9 8 7 6 5 5 5 6 6 5 3 1 HEAT CONTENT 8 10 12 9 2 1 4 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 14 CX,CY: -10/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 834 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 13.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 4. 8. 13. 16. 19. 22. 22. 22. 21. 21. 19. 17. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. -0. -5. -9. -15. -23. -27. -32. -39. -44. -51. -58. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -2. -3. -4. -8. -9. -10. -10. -9. -7. -6. -5. -4. -3. -2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -8. -8. -9. -9. -8. -8. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. 8. 10. 11. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -10. -11. -12. -13. -13. -13. -13. -13. -13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2. -4. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -7. -7. -6. -6. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -3. -4. -7. -13. -17. -19. -22. -25. -27. -29. -32. -33. -34. -36. -39. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 13.5 32.0 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL952021 INVEST 11/01/21 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 1.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 27.7 30.1 to 2.3 0.09 0.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 8.2 0.0 to 151.8 0.05 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.0 36.6 to 2.8 0.64 0.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 109.6 895.4 to -55.0 0.83 0.8 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.4 2.9 to -2.9 0.26 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 91.8 28.3 to 146.3 0.54 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 67.0 -29.7 to 185.9 0.45 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 10.6 100.0 to 0.0 0.89 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.4 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.6 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.7% 4.2% 4.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.4% 0.4% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.2% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.7% 1.5% 1.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL952021 INVEST 11/01/2021 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 24 22 21 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 25 24 22 21 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 25 22 21 20 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT