* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL952021 11/01/21 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 24 23 23 21 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 25 24 23 23 21 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 25 24 23 22 20 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 20 23 21 21 22 24 23 24 32 47 43 40 48 48 55 54 69 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 10 15 17 17 20 8 1 4 -6 0 3 2 0 -2 -3 -16 SHEAR DIR 215 209 214 213 210 230 242 247 231 237 245 248 254 253 260 257 262 SST (C) 27.6 27.4 27.2 27.1 27.0 26.4 26.4 26.0 25.9 25.6 25.4 25.2 25.0 24.7 24.4 23.5 21.9 POT. INT. (KT) 132 128 126 124 123 118 117 113 111 108 106 105 103 102 100 94 87 ADJ. POT. INT. 130 124 120 118 116 110 109 103 100 97 95 94 93 92 90 86 80 200 MB T (C) -54.9 -55.1 -55.1 -54.9 -55.3 -55.7 -55.7 -56.0 -55.9 -55.5 -55.2 -54.9 -55.0 -55.3 -55.4 -55.8 -56.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 -0.1 -0.3 -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 5 5 4 4 4 4 4 3 2 1 0 0 700-500 MB RH 63 65 65 64 64 66 64 62 60 57 50 46 41 40 35 29 25 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 6 6 7 6 5 3 3 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 35 28 10 -15 -28 -63 -86 -73 -68 -38 -19 -16 -10 -13 -13 -25 -2 200 MB DIV 83 89 96 89 72 40 30 34 23 13 34 16 2 -1 -8 -25 -8 700-850 TADV -1 -3 -4 0 0 10 14 10 0 -5 -6 -3 -2 2 1 -3 -9 LAND (KM) 1456 1543 1588 1624 1632 1620 1578 1429 1278 1152 1028 903 768 645 499 350 172 LAT (DEG N) 12.6 13.1 13.7 14.4 15.2 16.9 18.7 20.1 20.7 20.8 20.8 20.9 21.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 30.8 31.7 32.2 32.6 32.7 32.5 31.9 30.7 29.3 28.1 26.9 25.7 24.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 11 9 8 8 8 10 9 8 6 6 6 6 6 8 9 9 11 HEAT CONTENT 8 7 9 12 14 2 1 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 12 CX,CY: -9/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 780 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 21.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 4. 8. 13. 17. 20. 22. 23. 23. 23. 22. 20. 18. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. -3. -7. -15. -23. -27. -31. -37. -43. -48. -54. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -2. -4. -7. -10. -11. -10. -8. -6. -5. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -8. -9. -9. -9. -9. -8. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -6. -8. -11. -12. -13. -14. -15. -15. -15. -15. -14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -4. -5. -5. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. -5. -5. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -2. -4. -9. -15. -16. -20. -24. -27. -28. -31. -33. -33. -35. -36. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 12.6 30.8 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL952021 INVEST 11/01/21 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 1.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 21.5 30.1 to 2.3 0.31 0.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 10.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.07 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.1 36.6 to 2.8 0.58 0.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 105.8 895.4 to -55.0 0.83 1.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.7 2.9 to -2.9 0.21 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 96.4 28.3 to 146.3 0.58 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 85.8 -29.7 to 185.9 0.54 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 4.4 100.0 to 0.0 0.96 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 0.6 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.7 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.6% 6.1% 5.0% 4.6% 0.0% 0.0% 4.5% 0.0% Logistic: 0.6% 1.1% 0.4% 0.3% 0.1% 0.3% 0.2% 0.4% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.8% 2.4% 1.8% 1.6% 0.0% 0.1% 1.6% 0.1% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL952021 INVEST 11/01/2021 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 24 23 23 21 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 25 24 23 23 21 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 25 22 21 21 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT