* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL952021 10/31/21 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 24 23 22 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 25 25 24 23 22 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 25 25 24 23 22 19 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 12 15 18 19 17 22 23 26 31 37 42 42 40 47 52 55 74 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 6 10 16 20 19 16 5 4 2 0 2 5 0 -5 -2 -17 SHEAR DIR 232 208 205 210 213 219 231 243 242 236 246 254 252 255 258 256 252 SST (C) 27.9 27.6 27.4 27.2 27.1 26.8 26.4 26.1 25.8 25.7 25.5 25.5 25.2 24.9 24.5 23.6 20.9 POT. INT. (KT) 136 131 128 125 124 121 117 113 110 109 107 107 105 103 101 95 83 ADJ. POT. INT. 135 128 122 119 118 114 109 103 98 97 96 97 95 94 92 87 77 200 MB T (C) -54.6 -54.9 -55.2 -55.1 -55.0 -55.6 -55.5 -56.0 -55.9 -55.9 -55.3 -55.2 -55.0 -55.3 -55.2 -55.4 -55.5 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 -0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 6 5 4 4 4 4 4 4 3 2 0 1 700-500 MB RH 65 64 66 66 65 67 65 66 61 59 54 49 44 40 37 33 29 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 7 7 7 7 6 4 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 38 37 27 11 -11 -44 -77 -73 -80 -64 -31 -27 -16 -15 1 0 -2 200 MB DIV 60 90 100 115 104 64 18 -1 28 12 33 8 9 -11 -8 -22 -11 700-850 TADV 1 0 -2 -4 0 10 14 11 3 -2 -6 -5 -5 -2 -1 -2 -9 LAND (KM) 1366 1459 1513 1557 1582 1569 1536 1448 1331 1224 1122 1002 869 731 555 363 142 LAT (DEG N) 12.0 12.5 13.0 13.6 14.3 15.9 17.6 19.0 19.7 19.9 19.8 19.6 19.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 29.8 30.8 31.4 31.9 32.2 32.1 31.6 30.7 29.7 28.7 27.7 26.5 25.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 12 9 8 8 8 9 9 7 5 5 5 6 6 7 9 10 12 HEAT CONTENT 10 8 7 8 11 9 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 13 CX,CY: -11/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 846 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 29.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 41.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 4. 8. 13. 17. 21. 23. 23. 24. 23. 23. 21. 19. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. -1. -5. -11. -19. -23. -27. -32. -37. -43. -49. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -2. -3. -7. -11. -12. -12. -10. -8. -6. -6. -5. -4. -3. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -9. -10. -11. -11. -10. -10. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 8. 10. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -7. -10. -12. -13. -14. -15. -16. -16. -16. -15. -15. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -2. -3. -3. -5. -4. -3. -2. -3. -4. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -0. -1. -2. -3. -7. -13. -16. -18. -21. -24. -26. -27. -29. -29. -30. -32. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 12.0 29.8 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL952021 INVEST 10/31/21 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 1.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 16.2 30.1 to 2.3 0.50 0.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 8.8 0.0 to 151.8 0.06 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 29.0 36.6 to 2.8 0.22 0.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 100.8 895.4 to -55.0 0.84 0.8 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.7 2.9 to -2.9 0.21 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 99.5 28.3 to 146.3 0.60 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 93.8 -29.7 to 185.9 0.57 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 3.0 100.0 to 0.0 0.97 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.4 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.6 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.5% 4.6% 4.3% 3.6% 0.0% 0.0% 5.2% 0.0% Logistic: 0.6% 1.4% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.2% 0.4% 0.6% Bayesian: 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.8% 2.0% 1.6% 1.3% 0.0% 0.1% 1.9% 0.2% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL952021 INVEST 10/31/2021 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 25 24 23 22 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 25 24 23 22 21 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 25 22 21 20 19 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT