* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL952021 10/31/21 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 25 25 25 22 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 25 25 25 25 25 22 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 25 25 25 25 24 22 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 10 12 15 14 16 25 28 29 37 42 45 40 42 46 60 62 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 6 8 13 19 25 17 5 3 4 0 0 2 1 -3 -7 -9 SHEAR DIR 277 256 212 205 209 214 226 241 245 236 245 252 253 250 255 255 250 SST (C) 28.2 27.8 27.6 27.4 27.2 27.1 26.6 26.1 25.8 25.6 25.6 25.7 25.8 25.7 25.5 25.2 23.9 POT. INT. (KT) 141 134 131 128 125 124 119 114 110 108 108 108 110 109 108 106 97 ADJ. POT. INT. 141 133 126 122 119 117 112 105 99 97 97 98 99 99 99 98 90 200 MB T (C) -54.8 -54.6 -54.9 -55.2 -55.0 -55.1 -55.6 -55.7 -55.9 -55.9 -55.7 -55.5 -55.5 -55.6 -55.4 -55.3 -55.5 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.2 -0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 6 6 6 6 6 5 5 4 4 4 5 5 4 4 3 2 700-500 MB RH 68 65 65 66 65 64 64 64 61 56 51 47 42 38 34 32 31 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 9 8 9 9 8 6 4 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 57 47 42 32 16 -26 -63 -70 -71 -67 -52 -35 -28 -17 -11 -6 -13 200 MB DIV 65 57 78 104 131 90 18 0 -7 23 -10 17 12 -20 -2 -4 0 700-850 TADV -1 1 0 -2 -1 5 15 12 6 -1 -5 -7 -3 -3 0 4 2 LAND (KM) 1277 1387 1448 1502 1535 1536 1512 1456 1332 1227 1142 1065 960 853 745 601 381 LAT (DEG N) 11.5 12.0 12.5 13.0 13.6 15.0 16.7 18.2 19.1 19.2 18.9 18.4 17.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 28.8 30.0 30.7 31.3 31.7 31.8 31.5 30.7 29.6 28.6 27.7 26.8 25.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 13 11 8 7 7 8 9 8 5 5 5 5 5 5 7 9 11 HEAT CONTENT 14 9 8 7 8 12 5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 14 CX,CY: -12/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 775 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 42.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 4. 8. 14. 18. 21. 23. 24. 25. 25. 24. 23. 21. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. 4. 1. -3. -8. -15. -20. -24. -29. -33. -39. -43. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -2. -3. -7. -12. -14. -13. -11. -8. -7. -6. -5. -4. -3. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -9. -10. -11. -11. -11. -11. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 8. 9. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -0. -2. -5. -9. -12. -15. -16. -17. -17. -17. -17. -17. -16. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -0. -0. 0. 0. -3. -8. -12. -15. -19. -21. -23. -24. -25. -24. -25. -26. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 11.5 28.8 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL952021 INVEST 10/31/21 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 2.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.4 30.1 to 2.3 0.64 1.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 9.2 0.0 to 151.8 0.06 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.3 36.6 to 2.8 0.39 0.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 95.8 895.4 to -55.0 0.84 1.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.0 2.9 to -2.9 0.33 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 103.0 28.3 to 146.3 0.63 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 87.0 -29.7 to 185.9 0.54 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 0.8 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.7% 8.7% 6.4% 5.2% 0.0% 0.0% 7.2% 0.0% Logistic: 1.3% 4.2% 1.5% 0.7% 0.3% 0.7% 0.6% 1.0% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.1% 4.4% 2.6% 2.0% 0.1% 0.2% 2.6% 0.3% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL952021 INVEST 10/31/2021 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 25 25 25 25 22 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 25 24 24 24 24 21 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 25 22 21 21 21 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT