* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL952021 10/31/21 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 26 26 26 26 21 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 25 25 26 26 26 26 21 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 25 25 25 25 25 23 20 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 4 6 7 12 18 15 22 26 25 31 37 43 43 39 39 42 44 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 8 9 7 7 10 24 16 13 7 -1 -4 -1 0 3 3 0 -1 SHEAR DIR 267 264 241 208 195 202 221 237 248 243 239 241 254 257 248 249 260 SST (C) 28.4 28.0 27.7 27.5 27.3 27.0 26.6 26.2 26.0 25.8 25.5 25.4 25.1 24.9 24.7 24.0 22.1 POT. INT. (KT) 143 137 133 129 127 123 119 115 113 110 108 106 104 103 101 97 87 ADJ. POT. INT. 143 136 129 125 121 116 112 107 104 100 97 96 94 93 92 89 81 200 MB T (C) -54.8 -54.8 -54.7 -54.8 -55.1 -54.6 -55.4 -55.3 -55.8 -55.8 -56.0 -55.6 -55.6 -55.4 -55.7 -55.7 -55.8 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 0.2 -0.2 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 6 6 5 6 5 4 4 4 4 4 4 3 2 3 0 700-500 MB RH 72 70 67 66 66 65 66 66 63 57 52 47 42 38 34 32 29 MODEL VTX (KT) 11 10 10 10 10 10 9 6 4 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 65 48 36 26 17 -19 -53 -76 -67 -71 -53 -35 -35 -9 -7 7 1 200 MB DIV 94 90 82 93 104 123 60 17 8 12 11 0 1 2 -7 11 -20 700-850 TADV 0 0 1 0 -1 1 14 16 10 2 -6 -10 -7 -4 -3 -1 0 LAND (KM) 1114 1194 1270 1333 1387 1461 1467 1438 1309 1154 1009 890 784 660 531 369 149 LAT (DEG N) 11.2 11.8 12.4 12.9 13.5 14.8 16.5 18.3 19.8 20.6 20.5 20.1 19.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 27.1 28.1 29.0 29.7 30.3 31.1 31.1 30.5 29.5 28.1 26.7 25.5 24.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 12 11 10 8 8 8 9 9 9 7 6 6 6 6 7 9 11 HEAT CONTENT 23 16 12 11 10 8 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 13 CX,CY: -10/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 776 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 57.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 3.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 4. 8. 14. 18. 22. 24. 25. 25. 25. 24. 23. 21. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 2. -1. -5. -11. -16. -20. -25. -29. -32. -35. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -1. -2. -2. -6. -10. -13. -13. -10. -8. -6. -5. -4. -4. -3. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -7. -7. -8. -9. -10. -10. -10. -9. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -5. -10. -14. -16. -19. -20. -20. -20. -20. -19. -19. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -4. -10. -13. -16. -19. -21. -23. -23. -22. -21. -21. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 11.2 27.1 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL952021 INVEST 10/31/21 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 2.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.6 30.1 to 2.3 0.74 1.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 14.4 0.0 to 151.8 0.09 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.4 36.6 to 2.8 0.78 1.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 84.4 895.4 to -55.0 0.85 1.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.6 2.9 to -2.9 0.39 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 106.0 28.3 to 146.3 0.66 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 92.6 -29.7 to 185.9 0.57 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.4 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.4% 14.9% 9.6% 7.8% 0.0% 0.0% 9.0% 0.0% Logistic: 3.8% 18.6% 8.1% 4.8% 2.5% 4.5% 1.6% 2.3% Bayesian: 0.5% 1.9% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.9% 11.8% 6.1% 4.2% 0.9% 1.5% 3.5% 0.8% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL952021 INVEST 10/31/2021 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 25 26 26 26 26 21 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 25 24 25 25 25 25 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 25 22 21 21 21 21 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 15 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT