* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL952021 10/31/21 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 26 26 27 28 25 21 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 25 25 26 26 27 28 25 21 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 25 25 25 25 25 25 23 19 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 4 4 6 7 12 13 19 25 31 30 39 44 47 42 39 42 51 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 7 5 2 5 15 22 16 10 6 0 0 2 2 5 1 0 SHEAR DIR 169 233 239 210 194 198 203 228 237 251 234 229 238 252 246 249 258 SST (C) 28.7 28.5 28.2 27.8 27.6 27.2 26.9 26.5 26.1 25.9 25.8 25.7 25.7 25.9 25.8 25.6 25.2 POT. INT. (KT) 147 144 139 134 131 125 122 118 113 110 108 107 108 111 110 108 105 ADJ. POT. INT. 147 144 138 130 126 119 114 109 103 99 96 95 96 100 99 98 96 200 MB T (C) -54.6 -54.9 -54.9 -54.6 -54.8 -55.0 -55.0 -55.4 -55.5 -55.9 -55.9 -55.9 -55.5 -55.3 -55.4 -55.7 -55.6 200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 -0.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 4 5 6 6 6 6 6 5 4 4 4 4 5 4 4 4 3 700-500 MB RH 76 73 69 67 66 64 65 66 66 62 57 52 49 44 40 37 34 MODEL VTX (KT) 11 10 10 10 10 9 8 6 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 76 59 46 29 21 -5 -36 -66 -71 -73 -69 -53 -31 -27 -18 -12 -6 200 MB DIV 96 103 84 88 96 129 108 45 -3 -8 19 30 10 2 -4 23 -10 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 -1 -3 4 14 6 6 0 -1 -4 -2 -2 -1 0 LAND (KM) 1009 1088 1159 1223 1284 1382 1418 1406 1382 1306 1229 1180 1124 1042 938 836 734 LAT (DEG N) 10.5 11.1 11.6 12.2 12.7 13.9 15.3 16.7 18.1 18.9 19.1 19.0 18.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 25.9 26.8 27.7 28.5 29.2 30.3 30.7 30.5 30.0 29.3 28.6 28.1 27.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 11 10 10 9 8 8 7 8 6 5 3 2 3 5 5 5 6 HEAT CONTENT 20 23 18 13 11 10 7 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 12 CX,CY: -10/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 748 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 58.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 4.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. -0. 1. 4. 9. 14. 19. 22. 25. 26. 26. 26. 26. 25. 23. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 4. 1. -4. -10. -15. -20. -25. -28. -32. -35. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -7. -10. -11. -10. -8. -6. -5. -5. -4. -4. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -7. -8. -9. -10. -11. -11. -11. -11. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 5. 6. 8. 9. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -6. -10. -14. -17. -19. -19. -20. -20. -19. -19. -19. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 0. -4. -10. -14. -16. -19. -22. -24. -23. -22. -22. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 10.5 25.9 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL952021 INVEST 10/31/21 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 2.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.9 30.1 to 2.3 0.84 1.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 17.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.11 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.0 36.6 to 2.8 0.64 1.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 71.0 895.4 to -55.0 0.87 1.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.6 2.9 to -2.9 0.40 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 112.3 28.3 to 146.3 0.71 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 93.4 -29.7 to 185.9 0.57 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.4 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.0% 15.2% 9.7% 7.7% 0.0% 0.0% 9.8% 0.0% Logistic: 4.5% 29.4% 14.2% 8.4% 4.5% 5.8% 2.8% 2.9% Bayesian: 0.6% 4.7% 1.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.2% 0.3% 0.0% Consensus: 3.1% 16.4% 8.3% 5.4% 1.5% 2.0% 4.3% 1.0% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL952021 INVEST 10/31/2021 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 25 26 26 27 28 25 21 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 25 24 25 25 26 27 24 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 25 22 21 21 22 23 20 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 16 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT