* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL952021 09/18/21 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 33 34 35 36 36 36 36 32 30 31 34 38 40 42 42 V (KT) LAND 30 31 33 34 35 36 36 36 36 32 30 31 34 38 40 42 42 V (KT) LGEM 30 30 31 31 31 30 28 25 22 20 19 18 17 17 18 20 22 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 10 16 18 22 31 27 29 25 34 32 27 17 17 10 17 20 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 7 9 9 7 2 7 1 1 3 0 0 0 -2 -3 -2 -3 -1 SHEAR DIR 181 180 189 200 193 202 223 251 243 244 237 259 262 251 230 250 235 SST (C) 28.2 28.3 28.5 28.6 28.8 29.1 29.2 29.1 29.1 29.2 29.2 29.3 29.1 28.8 28.9 28.8 28.6 POT. INT. (KT) 141 143 145 146 150 155 156 154 153 153 153 154 151 147 148 147 144 ADJ. POT. INT. 141 141 142 141 145 149 148 143 139 136 133 134 129 127 127 125 121 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.7 -54.1 -54.1 -53.8 -53.8 -54.2 -54.3 -54.5 -54.6 -54.7 -55.0 -55.0 -55.1 -55.3 -55.5 -55.6 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 0.2 0.0 0.1 0.6 0.3 0.3 0.0 0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 8 8 8 8 7 6 700-500 MB RH 51 52 50 50 52 55 54 54 57 61 63 64 62 62 63 67 70 MODEL VTX (KT) 11 11 11 11 11 11 10 10 9 7 7 6 5 5 4 3 2 850 MB ENV VOR 43 38 29 16 10 3 -8 -6 0 0 1 -2 -15 -6 -14 -39 -40 200 MB DIV 44 76 66 24 19 -5 13 -10 33 8 10 8 8 11 38 27 26 700-850 TADV -4 -2 2 4 1 -9 -3 -7 -3 -2 0 0 4 1 4 5 5 LAND (KM) 1105 1004 922 890 879 656 427 327 356 441 540 636 726 852 996 1138 1150 LAT (DEG N) 15.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 52.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 15 14 13 12 13 13 12 10 8 6 5 5 5 6 6 7 7 HEAT CONTENT 51 37 39 44 62 43 43 44 79 67 54 52 47 38 39 38 39 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 16 CX,CY: -14/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 762 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 85.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 7.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 4. 8. 14. 19. 24. 27. 30. 33. 36. 36. 36. 35. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 1. -3. -7. -12. -17. -20. -20. -21. -21. -20. -20. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -3. -4. -7. -9. -12. -13. -15. -15. -17. -17. -18. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 2. 0. 1. 4. 8. 10. 12. 12. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 15.5 52.0 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL952021 INVEST 09/18/21 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 2.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.9 30.1 to 2.3 0.55 1.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 46.6 0.0 to 151.8 0.31 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.3 36.6 to 2.8 0.63 1.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 203.4 895.4 to -55.0 0.73 1.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.2 2.9 to -2.9 0.30 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 112.3 28.3 to 146.3 0.71 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 45.8 -29.7 to 185.9 0.35 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 30.6 100.0 to 0.0 0.69 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.1 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.1% 12.4% 8.1% 7.1% 5.1% 7.8% 7.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.9% 4.9% 3.0% 2.2% 0.6% 2.5% 2.8% 2.1% Bayesian: 0.7% 1.1% 1.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.7% 0.4% 0.0% Consensus: 2.6% 6.1% 4.2% 3.1% 1.9% 3.7% 3.4% 0.7% DTOPS: 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL952021 INVEST 09/18/21 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL952021 INVEST 09/18/2021 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 31 33 34 35 36 36 36 36 32 30 31 34 38 40 42 42 18HR AGO 30 29 31 32 33 34 34 34 34 30 28 29 32 36 38 40 40 12HR AGO 30 27 26 27 28 29 29 29 29 25 23 24 27 31 33 35 35 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 21 22 22 22 22 18 16 17 20 24 26 28 28 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT