* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL952021 09/18/21 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 34 35 37 38 37 38 36 35 33 33 36 40 43 47 49 V (KT) LAND 30 32 34 35 37 38 37 38 36 35 33 33 36 40 43 47 49 V (KT) LGEM 30 32 34 35 35 35 32 29 26 24 22 21 21 21 23 25 29 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 7 11 15 17 29 28 27 24 29 28 22 21 13 10 8 11 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 6 9 10 8 6 10 1 4 4 0 2 -1 -2 -4 0 -3 SHEAR DIR 218 188 175 190 201 194 217 231 244 227 248 267 290 296 281 254 281 SST (C) 27.9 28.2 28.4 28.6 28.6 28.9 29.1 29.2 29.0 29.2 29.2 29.1 29.3 28.9 28.5 28.8 28.9 POT. INT. (KT) 138 141 144 147 146 151 155 156 151 154 153 151 155 148 142 147 149 ADJ. POT. INT. 138 140 142 144 143 146 149 146 138 138 133 132 134 126 121 126 127 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.5 -53.7 -54.1 -54.1 -53.7 -54.1 -54.1 -54.5 -54.3 -54.6 -54.7 -55.2 -55.1 -55.2 -55.3 -55.4 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.5 0.5 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 8 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 7 700-500 MB RH 51 52 52 52 51 54 55 56 57 57 54 51 47 48 52 54 59 MODEL VTX (KT) 12 12 12 12 13 13 11 11 9 9 8 6 5 4 3 2 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 60 49 40 31 22 16 -1 -1 4 9 0 -8 -30 -36 -58 -52 -68 200 MB DIV 23 47 69 71 38 27 0 -4 39 0 -5 5 3 6 18 19 -17 700-850 TADV 0 -3 -4 1 5 -6 -11 -4 -9 -4 -1 0 2 1 5 2 10 LAND (KM) 1052 1066 980 918 877 770 519 351 357 433 458 529 671 775 863 1009 1096 LAT (DEG N) 14.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 51.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 16 14 14 13 13 12 13 11 9 7 5 5 6 4 6 7 8 HEAT CONTENT 39 45 38 40 47 48 45 39 59 71 62 50 50 43 34 35 39 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 19 CX,CY: -17/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 814 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 71.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 8.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 4. 8. 14. 19. 24. 27. 30. 33. 36. 36. 36. 35. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. -1. -5. -9. -13. -15. -16. -17. -16. -15. -13. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. -5. -5. -4. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -2. -4. -7. -8. -11. -14. -16. -18. -19. -19. -20. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2. -3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 5. 7. 8. 7. 8. 6. 5. 3. 3. 6. 10. 13. 17. 19. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 14.7 51.0 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL952021 INVEST 09/18/21 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 3.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.3 30.1 to 2.3 0.64 1.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 41.8 0.0 to 151.8 0.28 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.4 36.6 to 2.8 0.60 1.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 196.8 895.4 to -55.0 0.74 1.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.0 2.9 to -2.9 0.33 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 111.2 28.3 to 146.3 0.70 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 49.6 -29.7 to 185.9 0.37 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 46.3 100.0 to 0.0 0.54 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.3 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.0% 14.3% 9.0% 7.7% 5.5% 8.7% 8.3% 9.6% Logistic: 3.8% 9.1% 6.2% 3.7% 1.0% 4.9% 2.6% 3.2% Bayesian: 1.4% 2.6% 2.4% 0.1% 0.0% 1.6% 2.0% 0.1% Consensus: 3.4% 8.6% 5.9% 3.8% 2.2% 5.0% 4.3% 4.3% DTOPS: 1.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL952021 INVEST 09/18/21 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL952021 INVEST 09/18/2021 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 32 34 35 37 38 37 38 36 35 33 33 36 40 43 47 49 18HR AGO 30 29 31 32 34 35 34 35 33 32 30 30 33 37 40 44 46 12HR AGO 30 27 26 27 29 30 29 30 28 27 25 25 28 32 35 39 41 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 22 23 22 23 21 20 18 18 21 25 28 32 34 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT