* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL952021 09/18/21 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 35 37 39 41 43 42 42 39 37 37 39 40 42 45 46 V (KT) LAND 30 33 35 37 39 41 43 42 42 39 37 37 39 40 42 45 46 V (KT) LGEM 30 32 34 35 36 37 36 33 30 27 24 23 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 15 13 7 10 13 20 32 26 28 28 33 29 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 0 6 9 9 6 6 4 3 4 0 1 -2 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 214 226 199 174 188 187 202 221 241 237 238 238 265 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.1 28.0 28.1 28.0 27.8 28.1 28.5 28.6 28.8 29.0 29.0 29.1 29.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 140 138 140 138 135 139 145 146 148 152 151 151 151 N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 140 137 138 136 131 134 139 137 136 140 135 130 128 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.7 -53.6 -53.8 -54.1 -53.9 -53.9 -54.1 -54.1 -54.4 -54.5 -54.8 -55.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 9 9 8 9 9 10 9 9 9 9 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 53 53 52 53 53 52 55 55 56 61 58 54 53 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 10 10 11 11 12 12 12 11 11 9 8 7 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 61 48 37 30 21 8 1 -9 -8 9 3 11 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 16 18 38 65 70 33 3 6 -2 43 -28 7 -9 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 5 0 -2 -3 0 0 -11 -7 -7 -7 -4 -1 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1138 1123 1128 1052 983 924 669 446 354 383 503 565 624 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 14.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 49.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 16 14 14 14 13 13 13 11 9 11 8 4 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 25 32 47 37 29 53 40 40 37 66 57 47 48 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 18 CX,CY: -15/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 701 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 77.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 9.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 9. 14. 19. 23. 26. 29. 32. 34. 35. 35. 34. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 3. -1. -5. -9. -13. -16. -17. -19. -21. -21. -21. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -6. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. -2. -3. -6. -8. -10. -12. -13. -13. -12. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 5. 7. 9. 11. 13. 12. 12. 9. 7. 7. 9. 10. 12. 15. 16. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 14.7 49.0 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL952021 INVEST 09/18/21 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 3.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.7 30.1 to 2.3 0.66 1.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 34.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.22 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.4 36.6 to 2.8 0.48 1.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 190.6 895.4 to -55.0 0.74 1.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.6 2.9 to -2.9 0.60 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 106.3 28.3 to 146.3 0.66 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 41.4 -29.7 to 185.9 0.33 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 21.7 100.0 to 0.0 0.78 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.3 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.8% 14.3% 9.1% 7.4% 5.4% 8.9% 9.1% 10.1% Logistic: 7.0% 17.8% 10.2% 3.1% 1.3% 5.1% 5.8% 5.0% Bayesian: 2.1% 8.8% 5.0% 0.1% 0.1% 1.6% 7.7% 0.4% Consensus: 4.6% 13.6% 8.1% 3.6% 2.3% 5.2% 7.5% 5.2% DTOPS: 1.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL952021 INVEST 09/18/21 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL952021 INVEST 09/18/2021 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 33 35 37 39 41 43 42 42 39 37 37 39 40 42 45 46 18HR AGO 30 29 31 33 35 37 39 38 38 35 33 33 35 36 38 41 42 12HR AGO 30 27 26 28 30 32 34 33 33 30 28 28 30 31 33 36 37 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 22 24 26 25 25 22 20 20 22 23 25 28 29 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT