* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL952021 09/18/21 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 28 29 31 35 40 40 40 40 39 40 41 42 44 47 49 V (KT) LAND 25 26 28 29 31 35 40 40 40 40 39 40 41 42 44 47 49 V (KT) LGEM 25 26 26 27 28 29 29 27 25 22 21 20 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 8 12 12 10 10 13 26 31 27 24 25 28 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -1 0 4 8 9 7 7 4 4 6 0 -1 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 181 217 217 189 183 191 184 208 232 245 234 247 267 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.2 28.2 28.0 28.1 28.1 27.9 28.3 28.5 28.8 28.8 29.0 29.0 29.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 142 141 138 139 139 136 142 145 149 148 151 150 154 N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 142 141 137 137 137 132 138 138 139 136 136 133 135 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.7 -53.9 -53.8 -53.9 -54.3 -53.9 -54.3 -54.4 -54.7 -54.6 -54.8 -55.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.2 0.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 9 9 9 9 9 10 9 9 9 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 55 55 53 52 51 51 53 53 55 58 60 58 55 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 9 9 11 11 11 12 12 11 10 9 8 7 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 73 60 46 35 28 11 5 -9 -9 0 9 8 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 2 27 27 38 59 43 50 -1 5 43 2 6 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 4 4 1 0 0 4 -7 -8 -8 -8 -7 -3 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1162 1137 1120 1131 1055 957 833 553 390 350 422 486 582 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 14.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 47.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 17 15 14 13 13 13 14 13 11 9 8 7 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 22 25 31 47 39 31 54 42 37 51 71 57 46 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 19 CX,CY: -17/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 575 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 51.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 4.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. -0. 1. 3. 9. 15. 20. 25. 28. 32. 35. 38. 39. 40. 39. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 2. -2. -6. -9. -12. -14. -16. -17. -18. -18. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. -1. -3. -5. -8. -10. -13. -13. -13. -13. -13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 4. 6. 10. 15. 15. 15. 15. 14. 15. 16. 17. 19. 22. 24. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 14.1 47.3 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL952021 INVEST 09/18/21 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 2.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.4 30.1 to 2.3 0.71 1.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 32.8 0.0 to 151.8 0.22 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.2 36.6 to 2.8 0.46 0.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 155.0 895.4 to -55.0 0.78 1.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.4 2.9 to -2.9 0.58 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 114.0 28.3 to 146.3 0.73 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 30.6 -29.7 to 185.9 0.28 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 11.6 100.0 to 0.0 0.88 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.7 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.1 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.2% 12.3% 8.0% 6.6% 0.0% 0.0% 9.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.4% 9.5% 4.5% 0.8% 0.3% 2.2% 3.1% 3.7% Bayesian: 0.7% 6.1% 1.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.4% 0.8% 0.1% Consensus: 2.1% 9.3% 4.8% 2.5% 0.1% 0.8% 4.3% 1.3% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL952021 INVEST 09/18/21 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL952021 INVEST 09/18/2021 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 26 28 29 31 35 40 40 40 40 39 40 41 42 44 47 49 18HR AGO 25 24 26 27 29 33 38 38 38 38 37 38 39 40 42 45 47 12HR AGO 25 22 21 22 24 28 33 33 33 33 32 33 34 35 37 40 42 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 17 21 26 26 26 26 25 26 27 28 30 33 35 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT