* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL952021 09/17/21 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 28 30 33 39 44 46 45 45 44 45 44 43 42 46 51 V (KT) LAND 25 26 28 30 33 39 44 46 45 45 44 45 44 43 42 46 51 V (KT) LGEM 25 26 27 28 30 33 33 32 30 28 26 25 24 23 22 23 26 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 6 5 8 11 10 10 15 31 29 28 19 30 29 29 17 13 13 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -3 -2 -2 2 14 9 8 2 5 5 3 0 0 -3 -4 -6 SHEAR DIR 131 169 204 212 196 179 168 189 212 246 251 243 248 258 281 309 327 SST (C) 28.3 28.2 28.3 28.0 28.1 27.9 28.0 28.4 28.6 28.8 28.9 28.9 29.0 29.2 28.6 28.9 28.6 POT. INT. (KT) 143 142 143 139 140 137 138 144 146 148 149 149 150 155 145 149 144 ADJ. POT. INT. 143 142 143 139 139 133 133 138 138 137 134 132 132 138 128 128 122 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.7 -53.9 -53.9 -53.9 -54.2 -53.9 -54.0 -54.3 -54.3 -54.8 -54.7 -54.9 -55.1 -55.8 -56.0 -56.0 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 8 8 8 9 9 9 10 10 10 9 9 8 8 7 7 700-500 MB RH 58 59 58 56 53 52 50 55 54 57 58 59 58 63 62 65 61 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 9 10 11 11 13 12 12 11 10 8 8 6 5 4 3 3 850 MB ENV VOR 76 73 61 47 39 19 6 -1 -16 -15 -3 0 -5 2 -2 18 7 200 MB DIV -2 0 31 34 44 57 35 30 -2 1 45 15 0 -18 33 1 11 700-850 TADV 0 3 3 1 1 0 1 -8 -5 -10 -3 -7 0 0 5 6 4 LAND (KM) 1221 1148 1102 1095 1109 985 941 702 470 378 394 473 509 659 905 1110 1126 LAT (DEG N) 13.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 45.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 17 17 16 15 15 13 14 13 12 10 8 7 6 9 10 8 7 HEAT CONTENT 20 22 26 30 44 30 48 43 40 38 65 63 54 48 35 37 40 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 18 CX,CY: -16/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 534 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 38.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 7.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. -0. 0. 3. 9. 15. 20. 25. 29. 32. 35. 38. 39. 40. 38. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 5. 1. -3. -6. -9. -12. -15. -17. -16. -15. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. -2. -3. -7. -8. -12. -13. -15. -15. -15. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 5. 8. 14. 19. 21. 20. 20. 19. 20. 19. 18. 17. 21. 26. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 13.4 45.4 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL952021 INVEST 09/17/21 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 2.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.1 30.1 to 2.3 0.79 1.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 28.4 0.0 to 151.8 0.19 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.8 36.6 to 2.8 0.44 0.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 137.0 895.4 to -55.0 0.80 1.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.3 2.9 to -2.9 0.56 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 116.3 28.3 to 146.3 0.75 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 21.4 -29.7 to 185.9 0.24 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.7 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.2 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.4% 12.6% 8.3% 6.8% 0.0% 0.0% 10.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.5% 13.5% 7.4% 1.3% 0.5% 2.7% 2.8% 3.9% Bayesian: 0.4% 3.7% 1.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% 0.3% 0.2% Consensus: 2.1% 9.9% 5.6% 2.7% 0.2% 1.0% 4.4% 1.3% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL952021 INVEST 09/17/21 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL952021 INVEST 09/17/2021 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 26 28 30 33 39 44 46 45 45 44 45 44 43 42 46 51 18HR AGO 25 24 26 28 31 37 42 44 43 43 42 43 42 41 40 44 49 12HR AGO 25 22 21 23 26 32 37 39 38 38 37 38 37 36 35 39 44 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 18 24 29 31 30 30 29 30 29 28 27 31 36 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT