* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL952021 09/17/21 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 27 30 34 40 48 54 58 59 60 61 58 57 56 56 60 V (KT) LAND 25 26 27 30 34 40 48 54 58 59 60 61 58 57 56 56 60 V (KT) LGEM 25 26 27 28 30 35 38 40 42 44 45 45 43 42 40 41 43 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 10 7 5 3 1 2 6 11 21 21 20 24 22 24 22 20 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -4 -4 -3 0 6 10 5 7 2 4 8 5 5 -2 -2 -3 SHEAR DIR 93 91 104 166 205 207 268 191 196 187 219 220 235 241 250 268 309 SST (C) 28.7 28.8 28.5 28.5 28.6 28.0 28.2 27.8 27.8 28.1 28.4 28.4 28.3 28.2 27.2 27.8 28.5 POT. INT. (KT) 149 150 145 145 146 137 139 133 134 138 142 142 140 139 127 135 145 ADJ. POT. INT. 149 150 145 145 145 132 133 126 125 128 132 129 125 123 112 120 130 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.6 -53.7 -53.8 -53.9 -53.9 -54.2 -54.0 -54.3 -54.3 -54.3 -54.5 -54.7 -54.9 -55.2 -55.1 -55.5 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.1 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 7 7 7 8 8 8 7 8 7 7 7 6 5 5 5 700-500 MB RH 67 65 64 63 61 58 52 55 58 61 61 61 63 63 64 64 62 MODEL VTX (KT) 10 10 11 11 13 13 14 14 13 12 11 10 8 8 7 6 5 850 MB ENV VOR 77 72 65 54 45 22 0 -6 -13 -13 -6 14 20 25 24 14 11 200 MB DIV -9 -8 -7 19 42 66 22 37 3 1 31 26 21 30 7 35 23 700-850 TADV -1 0 0 0 0 -1 2 -2 0 1 5 4 9 11 9 9 13 LAND (KM) 1206 1120 1052 1011 1012 1049 1078 1016 986 930 803 796 895 1064 1275 1508 1779 LAT (DEG N) 11.8 12.1 12.4 12.8 13.4 14.6 15.7 16.8 17.9 19.1 20.5 22.2 23.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 43.6 45.2 46.6 47.8 48.9 50.8 52.4 53.9 55.5 56.9 58.4 59.3 59.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 17 15 13 12 12 10 9 9 9 9 10 9 8 9 10 12 13 HEAT CONTENT 20 25 27 27 31 33 42 29 33 59 60 26 27 23 12 17 32 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 18 CX,CY: -17/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 464 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 16.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 10.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -0. 3. 9. 15. 20. 25. 28. 31. 34. 36. 37. 37. 36. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 9. 11. 12. 11. 8. 7. 4. 2. -0. -2. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. -2. -4. -6. -9. -10. -11. -12. -14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 5. 9. 15. 23. 29. 33. 34. 35. 36. 33. 32. 31. 31. 35. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 11.8 43.6 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL952021 INVEST 09/17/21 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 2.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.8 30.1 to 2.3 0.84 1.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 26.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.17 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.0 36.6 to 2.8 0.58 1.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 104.6 895.4 to -55.0 0.83 1.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.3 2.9 to -2.9 0.45 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 122.0 28.3 to 146.3 0.79 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 7.4 -29.7 to 185.9 0.17 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.3 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.0% 14.0% 9.0% 7.7% 0.0% 0.0% 11.4% 0.0% Logistic: 2.9% 13.3% 10.6% 3.3% 0.8% 3.8% 2.5% 2.3% Bayesian: 0.3% 3.2% 2.1% 0.2% 0.1% 1.0% 0.8% 0.6% Consensus: 2.4% 10.2% 7.3% 3.7% 0.3% 1.6% 4.9% 1.0% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL952021 INVEST 09/17/21 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL952021 INVEST 09/17/2021 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 26 27 30 34 40 48 54 58 59 60 61 58 57 56 56 60 18HR AGO 25 24 25 28 32 38 46 52 56 57 58 59 56 55 54 54 58 12HR AGO 25 22 21 24 28 34 42 48 52 53 54 55 52 51 50 50 54 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 19 25 33 39 43 44 45 46 43 42 41 41 45 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT