* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL952021 09/17/21 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 27 29 32 38 46 53 58 60 61 62 63 64 67 68 70 V (KT) LAND 25 26 27 29 32 38 46 53 58 60 61 62 63 64 67 68 70 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 26 27 29 33 36 39 41 44 45 46 48 48 48 48 49 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 14 14 9 7 7 7 4 10 12 15 20 24 23 26 32 36 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -5 -6 -4 -4 -1 2 1 3 1 3 1 3 2 2 0 0 SHEAR DIR 89 82 102 128 177 242 265 249 214 202 225 234 248 257 260 266 280 SST (C) 28.2 28.3 27.9 27.9 28.0 27.7 27.6 27.7 27.8 28.0 28.5 28.5 28.5 27.9 27.7 28.3 29.2 POT. INT. (KT) 141 142 136 136 138 134 132 133 134 136 143 143 143 136 134 143 157 ADJ. POT. INT. 141 142 136 136 138 132 128 128 127 127 133 131 130 122 120 129 140 200 MB T (C) -53.8 -53.6 -53.5 -53.6 -53.7 -53.6 -54.3 -53.9 -54.4 -54.3 -54.3 -54.5 -54.7 -54.8 -55.1 -54.9 -55.1 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.2 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.2 0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 7 8 7 8 8 8 8 8 7 8 7 6 6 5 5 700-500 MB RH 74 72 68 67 66 62 55 50 53 57 58 59 62 62 59 59 62 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 9 9 9 10 11 12 13 13 12 10 10 10 12 15 16 17 850 MB ENV VOR 69 56 46 42 31 9 -4 -12 -17 -24 -20 -9 2 9 3 0 -14 200 MB DIV 4 -24 -10 -23 -4 55 40 40 43 -9 -6 24 15 42 27 49 27 700-850 TADV -4 -5 -2 0 -1 0 0 1 3 4 7 5 8 9 7 14 13 LAND (KM) 1364 1243 1166 1116 1094 1072 1126 1161 1091 1074 979 893 927 1067 1294 1605 1647 LAT (DEG N) 10.6 10.8 11.1 11.5 12.1 13.5 15.0 16.2 17.4 18.6 19.7 21.1 22.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 40.7 42.2 43.4 44.5 45.6 47.9 49.9 51.8 53.5 55.1 56.5 57.7 58.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 15 13 12 12 13 13 11 11 10 9 9 8 9 11 13 16 16 HEAT CONTENT 12 25 19 19 23 21 27 34 29 30 55 47 25 19 23 27 34 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 16 CX,CY: -15/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 471 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 35.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 8.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. -0. 1. 3. 9. 15. 20. 24. 28. 31. 34. 36. 36. 37. 36. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 9. 8. 7. 5. 3. 1. -2. -5. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. -1. -4. -6. -5. -4. -1. -0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 4. 7. 13. 21. 28. 33. 35. 36. 37. 38. 39. 42. 43. 45. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 10.6 40.7 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL952021 INVEST 09/17/21 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 2.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.8 30.1 to 2.3 0.69 1.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 19.6 0.0 to 151.8 0.13 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.7 36.6 to 2.8 0.53 1.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 76.8 895.4 to -55.0 0.86 1.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.5 2.9 to -2.9 0.41 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 113.7 28.3 to 146.3 0.72 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : -11.4 -29.7 to 185.9 0.08 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.7 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.2% 10.8% 7.5% 6.7% 0.0% 0.0% 9.2% 0.0% Logistic: 2.6% 17.2% 11.7% 4.6% 2.5% 7.7% 8.7% 9.6% Bayesian: 0.2% 6.8% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.5% 0.1% 2.5% Consensus: 2.0% 11.6% 6.6% 3.8% 0.8% 2.7% 6.0% 4.1% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL952021 INVEST 09/17/21 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL952021 INVEST 09/17/2021 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 26 27 29 32 38 46 53 58 60 61 62 63 64 67 68 70 18HR AGO 25 24 25 27 30 36 44 51 56 58 59 60 61 62 65 66 68 12HR AGO 25 22 21 23 26 32 40 47 52 54 55 56 57 58 61 62 64 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 18 24 32 39 44 46 47 48 49 50 53 54 56 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT