* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL952021 09/17/21 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 27 29 32 38 44 50 52 51 51 49 50 48 47 47 49 V (KT) LAND 25 26 27 29 32 38 44 50 52 51 51 49 50 48 47 47 49 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 26 27 28 32 36 37 37 36 34 32 30 28 26 25 25 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 9 12 10 8 11 8 13 15 24 29 28 23 25 27 29 27 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 -1 -5 -4 -4 -3 6 10 11 5 3 5 4 0 4 0 -1 SHEAR DIR 107 99 85 114 160 216 236 228 205 203 203 231 233 239 233 245 259 SST (C) 27.9 27.6 27.5 27.8 27.7 27.5 27.7 27.8 28.0 28.6 28.8 29.1 29.4 29.2 28.7 28.8 27.7 POT. INT. (KT) 138 134 132 136 135 132 134 135 136 145 148 152 157 154 146 148 132 ADJ. POT. INT. 138 134 132 136 135 131 130 129 128 136 137 139 141 136 128 130 115 200 MB T (C) -53.8 -54.0 -53.9 -53.7 -53.9 -54.1 -54.1 -54.4 -54.2 -54.4 -54.4 -54.8 -55.1 -55.0 -55.0 -55.2 -55.4 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.3 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 -0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 7 7 7 8 9 9 8 8 8 8 7 7 7 7 700-500 MB RH 66 68 65 63 63 60 57 52 54 58 62 58 61 62 61 58 61 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 10 9 9 10 11 12 14 14 12 12 9 9 8 7 6 4 850 MB ENV VOR 81 73 66 57 55 39 23 7 -4 -14 -18 -22 -4 -3 -15 -37 -48 200 MB DIV 38 11 -10 -5 -1 20 21 53 57 -15 -13 10 41 29 8 6 4 700-850 TADV -1 -1 -1 1 3 1 -1 6 -1 0 -1 2 3 6 3 6 7 LAND (KM) 1599 1465 1361 1280 1207 1131 1134 1037 974 918 781 683 697 774 915 1067 1260 LAT (DEG N) 12.2 12.4 12.7 13.0 13.4 14.4 15.5 16.5 17.6 18.5 19.6 20.7 22.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 39.2 40.9 42.5 44.0 45.6 48.5 51.1 53.4 55.3 57.0 58.4 59.7 60.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 17 16 15 15 16 15 13 11 9 9 9 8 7 7 7 8 9 HEAT CONTENT 18 10 10 14 16 20 34 28 29 56 52 38 35 42 39 31 20 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 17 CX,CY: -16/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 520 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 11.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 7.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 4. 9. 15. 20. 24. 28. 31. 34. 37. 38. 39. 37. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 4. -0. -3. -5. -7. -10. -12. -13. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. -5. -5. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 1. 3. 2. -1. -2. -6. -8. -10. -11. -12. -14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. -6. -6. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 4. 7. 13. 20. 25. 27. 26. 26. 24. 25. 23. 22. 22. 24. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 12.2 39.2 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL952021 INVEST 09/17/21 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 2.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.1 30.1 to 2.3 0.72 1.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 13.6 0.0 to 151.8 0.09 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.6 36.6 to 2.8 0.74 1.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 100.4 895.4 to -55.0 0.84 1.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.6 2.9 to -2.9 0.61 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 109.9 28.3 to 146.3 0.69 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 6.6 -29.7 to 185.9 0.17 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.3 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.5% 14.2% 9.2% 7.8% 0.0% 0.0% 9.8% 0.0% Logistic: 2.7% 16.1% 8.3% 2.0% 1.3% 6.6% 5.2% 8.0% Bayesian: 0.3% 13.1% 0.9% 0.1% 0.0% 1.0% 0.2% 0.4% Consensus: 2.5% 14.5% 6.1% 3.3% 0.4% 2.5% 5.1% 2.8% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL952021 INVEST 09/17/21 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL952021 INVEST 09/17/2021 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 26 27 29 32 38 44 50 52 51 51 49 50 48 47 47 49 18HR AGO 25 24 25 27 30 36 42 48 50 49 49 47 48 46 45 45 47 12HR AGO 25 22 21 23 26 32 38 44 46 45 45 43 44 42 41 41 43 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 18 24 30 36 38 37 37 35 36 34 33 33 35 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT