* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL952021 09/16/21 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 28 31 34 41 48 55 59 62 63 66 67 69 76 83 89 V (KT) LAND 25 26 28 31 34 41 48 55 59 62 63 66 67 69 76 83 89 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 26 27 28 32 37 41 43 45 45 45 45 46 49 55 62 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 16 12 9 13 10 10 8 7 6 17 18 18 14 17 11 15 17 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 1 0 -6 -5 -5 0 8 12 6 5 8 4 0 5 5 2 SHEAR DIR 99 104 93 85 117 208 234 245 211 209 208 208 235 250 232 234 210 SST (C) 28.2 28.0 27.7 27.7 27.8 28.0 28.1 28.0 28.3 28.8 28.9 29.2 29.3 29.6 29.7 29.2 29.0 POT. INT. (KT) 142 139 135 134 136 138 140 138 142 148 150 156 157 161 164 156 154 ADJ. POT. INT. 142 139 135 134 136 138 140 137 139 142 142 149 148 148 149 144 140 200 MB T (C) -53.7 -53.9 -53.9 -53.8 -53.6 -53.8 -53.9 -54.3 -54.0 -54.3 -54.5 -54.4 -54.6 -54.3 -54.3 -54.4 -54.3 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.3 -0.2 -0.1 0.2 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.6 0.3 1.0 0.7 TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 6 7 7 7 8 8 9 8 9 8 9 9 9 8 7 700-500 MB RH 67 68 70 68 66 64 61 55 53 52 54 53 51 53 50 44 38 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 9 10 10 9 11 12 14 14 14 13 13 12 13 16 19 21 850 MB ENV VOR 70 79 74 64 55 42 26 16 10 1 -9 -17 -17 2 3 6 -4 200 MB DIV 25 28 2 -18 -11 1 43 43 61 23 0 0 31 35 20 8 33 700-850 TADV 0 -2 -1 -2 0 2 0 1 4 0 1 0 3 5 5 8 7 LAND (KM) 1666 1562 1405 1290 1186 1033 975 992 803 709 726 571 385 384 511 740 1066 LAT (DEG N) 11.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 37.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 18 18 16 14 15 14 14 14 12 9 9 11 11 8 9 13 15 HEAT CONTENT 21 16 11 13 15 26 37 28 47 62 44 38 43 46 58 60 32 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 18 CX,CY: -17/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 459 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 23.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 10.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. 0. 1. 3. 9. 15. 20. 25. 29. 32. 36. 40. 41. 43. 42. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 8. 7. 5. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 4. 3. 1. 0. -2. -1. 2. 5. 6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. -5. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 6. 9. 16. 23. 30. 34. 37. 38. 41. 42. 44. 51. 58. 64. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 11.9 37.6 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL952021 INVEST 09/16/21 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 2.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.8 30.1 to 2.3 0.66 1.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 15.2 0.0 to 151.8 0.10 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.8 36.6 to 2.8 0.73 1.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 84.4 895.4 to -55.0 0.85 1.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.5 2.9 to -2.9 0.59 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 112.3 28.3 to 146.3 0.71 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 5.2 -29.7 to 185.9 0.16 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.3 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.5% 13.7% 8.9% 7.6% 0.0% 0.0% 9.8% 0.0% Logistic: 2.1% 14.6% 6.9% 1.6% 1.3% 6.7% 8.9% 5.8% Bayesian: 0.2% 7.6% 1.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.8% 0.8% 1.7% Consensus: 2.3% 12.0% 5.6% 3.1% 0.4% 2.5% 6.5% 2.5% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL952021 INVEST 09/16/21 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL952021 INVEST 09/16/2021 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 26 28 31 34 41 48 55 59 62 63 66 67 69 76 83 89 18HR AGO 25 24 26 29 32 39 46 53 57 60 61 64 65 67 74 81 87 12HR AGO 25 22 21 24 27 34 41 48 52 55 56 59 60 62 69 76 82 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 18 25 32 39 43 46 47 50 51 53 60 67 73 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT