* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL952021 09/16/21 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 27 29 31 38 44 48 52 56 59 63 65 66 66 68 70 V (KT) LAND 25 26 27 29 31 38 44 48 52 56 59 63 65 66 66 68 70 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 26 26 27 30 33 35 38 40 43 44 45 44 43 43 44 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 19 17 13 8 8 12 11 5 8 15 22 21 24 23 31 30 35 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 1 5 2 -1 -6 -3 6 14 10 8 7 3 0 -2 0 -4 SHEAR DIR 89 105 117 129 116 175 215 211 212 190 216 217 249 262 277 272 283 SST (C) 28.4 28.1 27.7 27.6 27.8 27.9 28.1 27.9 28.1 28.6 28.9 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.3 29.5 29.6 POT. INT. (KT) 147 142 136 134 136 137 139 136 139 145 150 155 155 154 155 158 159 ADJ. POT. INT. 147 142 136 134 136 137 139 133 135 140 144 149 147 143 140 141 142 200 MB T (C) -53.8 -53.7 -53.8 -54.0 -54.0 -53.9 -54.1 -54.3 -54.4 -54.3 -54.6 -54.7 -54.8 -54.7 -54.7 -54.6 -54.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 8 8 8 9 9 9 9 9 10 10 10 10 700-500 MB RH 66 66 66 67 64 63 59 58 55 53 55 55 53 51 53 55 53 MODEL VTX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 65 67 69 68 67 55 44 29 12 7 -6 -6 -19 -8 -16 -12 -23 200 MB DIV 40 24 7 -7 -14 1 24 50 47 41 -8 10 13 15 17 -6 -16 700-850 TADV -1 -1 0 0 1 1 0 0 2 3 1 -1 -4 -3 -3 -1 0 LAND (KM) 1690 1641 1461 1337 1229 1047 941 978 851 740 723 566 317 152 123 178 233 LAT (DEG N) 11.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 36.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 22 21 19 17 16 15 13 12 12 10 10 11 10 8 5 4 4 HEAT CONTENT 19 22 10 11 15 23 37 28 38 56 48 36 41 59 69 89 93 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 24 CX,CY: -23/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 342 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 45.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 6.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. -0. 1. 3. 9. 15. 20. 25. 29. 32. 36. 39. 41. 42. 41. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 2. 1. -1. -3. -6. -8. -11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 2. 2. -0. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 3. 3. 3. 4. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 4. 6. 13. 19. 23. 27. 31. 34. 38. 40. 41. 41. 43. 45. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 11.9 36.5 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL952021 INVEST 09/16/21 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 2.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.2 30.1 to 2.3 0.61 1.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 15.4 0.0 to 151.8 0.10 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.8 36.6 to 2.8 0.59 1.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 96.0 895.4 to -55.0 0.84 1.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.2 2.9 to -2.9 0.54 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 113.8 28.3 to 146.3 0.72 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 10.0 -29.7 to 185.9 0.18 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.7 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.2% 11.4% 7.7% 6.6% 0.0% 0.0% 8.6% 0.0% Logistic: 3.6% 18.6% 10.7% 5.9% 5.1% 11.9% 11.5% 10.7% Bayesian: 0.3% 10.5% 0.8% 0.1% 0.0% 0.4% 0.7% 6.5% Consensus: 2.3% 13.5% 6.4% 4.2% 1.7% 4.1% 6.9% 5.7% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL952021 INVEST 09/16/21 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL952021 INVEST 09/16/2021 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 26 27 29 31 38 44 48 52 56 59 63 65 66 66 68 70 18HR AGO 25 24 25 27 29 36 42 46 50 54 57 61 63 64 64 66 68 12HR AGO 25 22 21 23 25 32 38 42 46 50 53 57 59 60 60 62 64 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 17 24 30 34 38 42 45 49 51 52 52 54 56 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT