* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL952021 09/16/21 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 27 29 32 39 45 49 53 56 59 63 64 63 64 66 69 V (KT) LAND 25 26 27 29 32 39 45 49 53 56 59 63 64 63 64 66 69 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 26 27 28 30 33 36 39 40 41 42 42 39 38 38 39 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 18 19 17 13 9 8 15 14 16 13 24 24 30 20 23 26 41 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -3 -1 3 1 -2 -5 3 12 13 5 5 7 8 3 5 2 SHEAR DIR 73 83 101 113 120 140 211 221 207 194 204 214 231 248 248 251 251 SST (C) 28.3 28.5 28.0 27.9 27.7 27.9 27.7 27.8 27.9 28.5 28.9 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.4 29.6 29.3 POT. INT. (KT) 145 147 140 139 136 138 135 136 136 144 150 155 155 154 158 162 157 ADJ. POT. INT. 145 147 140 139 136 138 135 136 131 139 145 149 147 143 146 151 146 200 MB T (C) -54.0 -53.9 -53.6 -53.7 -53.9 -53.9 -54.2 -54.3 -54.5 -54.2 -54.5 -54.6 -54.6 -54.6 -54.5 -54.6 -54.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 7 8 9 8 9 8 9 10 10 9 9 9 700-500 MB RH 69 66 67 68 68 65 61 57 56 54 55 55 56 56 57 57 55 MODEL VTX (KT) 5 6 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 61 58 54 57 58 53 47 41 26 11 9 0 -12 -15 2 10 20 200 MB DIV 39 32 9 -1 -13 -1 14 47 54 58 15 26 16 17 39 31 -9 700-850 TADV -1 0 -1 0 0 0 3 0 -1 5 -4 -3 -3 -1 -3 -3 -3 LAND (KM) 1753 1714 1699 1562 1387 1169 1066 1004 920 784 663 582 380 247 197 289 402 LAT (DEG N) 11.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 34.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 21 18 19 19 18 17 17 15 11 11 10 10 10 8 8 10 12 HEAT CONTENT 11 18 19 15 11 17 23 30 31 49 51 35 40 45 64 92 54 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 25 CX,CY: -24/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 286 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 29.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 5.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. -0. 0. 3. 9. 15. 20. 25. 29. 32. 36. 40. 41. 43. 42. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 3. 2. -1. -3. -6. -8. -9. -11. -14. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7. 8. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 4. 3. 3. 5. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 4. 7. 14. 20. 24. 28. 31. 34. 38. 39. 38. 39. 41. 44. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 11.7 34.0 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL952021 INVEST 09/16/21 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 2.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.2 30.1 to 2.3 0.54 1.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 14.8 0.0 to 151.8 0.10 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.4 36.6 to 2.8 0.57 1.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 88.6 895.4 to -55.0 0.85 1.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.3 2.9 to -2.9 0.55 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 116.1 28.3 to 146.3 0.74 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 13.2 -29.7 to 185.9 0.20 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.6 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.0% 10.8% 7.3% 6.2% 0.0% 0.0% 8.5% 0.0% Logistic: 1.9% 9.1% 3.8% 1.1% 1.0% 6.3% 11.8% 14.9% Bayesian: 0.3% 7.5% 0.9% 0.1% 0.0% 0.2% 0.6% 4.0% Consensus: 1.7% 9.1% 4.0% 2.5% 0.4% 2.2% 6.9% 6.3% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL952021 INVEST 09/16/2021 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 26 27 29 32 39 45 49 53 56 59 63 64 63 64 66 69 18HR AGO 25 24 25 27 30 37 43 47 51 54 57 61 62 61 62 64 67 12HR AGO 25 22 21 23 26 33 39 43 47 50 53 57 58 57 58 60 63 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 18 25 31 35 39 42 45 49 50 49 50 52 55 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT