* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL952021 09/16/21 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 28 31 35 45 54 62 69 74 76 78 76 71 70 68 69 V (KT) LAND 25 26 28 31 35 45 54 62 69 74 76 78 76 71 70 68 69 V (KT) LGEM 25 24 24 25 26 30 34 40 47 52 53 52 50 45 41 37 36 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 14 20 20 18 13 5 6 12 7 12 15 25 32 34 28 31 29 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -1 -5 -4 1 -1 -3 -4 8 15 9 5 5 1 2 1 2 SHEAR DIR 76 78 78 93 106 97 160 227 211 215 204 212 200 224 222 229 227 SST (C) 28.3 28.2 28.5 28.2 28.0 27.6 27.9 27.8 27.8 27.9 28.3 28.9 29.2 29.3 29.5 29.7 29.4 POT. INT. (KT) 145 143 147 142 139 134 136 136 136 136 141 151 156 156 159 164 160 ADJ. POT. INT. 145 143 147 142 139 134 136 136 136 131 134 147 148 142 145 153 149 200 MB T (C) -54.0 -54.3 -54.2 -53.8 -53.9 -53.9 -53.9 -54.4 -54.4 -54.6 -54.2 -54.6 -54.5 -54.5 -54.4 -54.8 -54.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.3 -0.3 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 0.3 0.4 0.4 TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 6 6 6 7 8 7 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 8 7 700-500 MB RH 67 68 67 66 67 63 62 60 56 54 56 56 57 59 61 63 67 MODEL VTX (KT) 5 6 7 8 9 11 11 12 14 16 15 14 12 11 10 9 7 850 MB ENV VOR 63 59 63 59 63 64 54 36 34 12 1 -10 -20 -26 -9 4 20 200 MB DIV 60 40 35 12 3 -18 3 37 61 41 32 -5 2 10 54 74 43 700-850 TADV 0 -1 -1 0 2 -2 2 1 -2 2 -4 -7 -10 -5 -5 -6 -5 LAND (KM) 1559 1761 1695 1667 1587 1284 1092 1041 1018 894 831 831 575 460 457 461 573 LAT (DEG N) 11.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 31.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 22 22 19 16 18 18 13 14 15 11 10 13 11 7 7 11 14 HEAT CONTENT 11 11 19 20 18 12 22 25 31 33 42 58 44 44 45 53 59 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 23 CX,CY: -22/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 340 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 42.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 10.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. -0. 0. 3. 9. 15. 20. 25. 29. 32. 36. 39. 40. 42. 42. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. 2. -1. -5. -8. -10. -12. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 10. 7. 6. 1. -1. -2. -4. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 7. 7. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 3. 3. 3. 4. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 6. 10. 20. 29. 37. 44. 49. 51. 53. 51. 46. 45. 43. 44. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 11.5 31.5 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL952021 INVEST 09/16/21 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.54 2.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 17.2 30.1 to 2.3 0.46 0.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 15.8 0.0 to 151.8 0.10 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.5 36.6 to 2.8 0.77 1.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 94.4 895.4 to -55.0 0.84 1.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.1 2.9 to -2.9 0.51 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 118.3 28.3 to 146.3 0.76 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 30.0 -29.7 to 185.9 0.28 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 3.0 100.0 to 0.0 0.97 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.6 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 2.9% 11.0% 7.4% 6.4% 0.0% 0.0% 8.5% 0.0% Logistic: 1.8% 9.8% 4.4% 1.6% 1.5% 5.7% 10.1% 22.4% Bayesian: 0.1% 1.8% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% 5.4% Consensus: 1.6% 7.5% 4.1% 2.6% 0.5% 1.9% 6.3% 9.3% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL952021 INVEST 09/16/2021 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 26 28 31 35 45 54 62 69 74 76 78 76 71 70 68 69 18HR AGO 25 24 26 29 33 43 52 60 67 72 74 76 74 69 68 66 67 12HR AGO 25 22 21 24 28 38 47 55 62 67 69 71 69 64 63 61 62 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 19 29 38 46 53 58 60 62 60 55 54 52 53 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT