* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL952021 09/15/21 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 34 37 39 45 52 58 62 61 60 60 60 59 57 58 59 V (KT) LAND 30 32 34 37 39 45 52 58 62 61 60 60 60 59 57 58 59 V (KT) LGEM 30 32 34 36 38 42 47 53 58 60 58 53 47 41 35 31 28 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 14 13 15 16 18 15 14 4 18 23 28 27 34 33 33 28 23 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 -3 -2 -2 0 -4 0 -2 -1 5 10 9 12 12 9 2 SHEAR DIR 82 88 81 64 74 62 57 255 261 254 241 217 216 202 215 209 224 SST (C) 28.7 28.9 29.0 28.7 28.4 28.6 28.1 27.5 27.5 27.3 27.7 27.8 28.4 28.9 29.2 29.2 29.5 POT. INT. (KT) 149 152 154 149 144 148 141 133 133 130 134 135 143 150 154 154 159 ADJ. POT. INT. 149 152 154 149 144 148 141 133 133 129 133 130 137 140 144 141 144 200 MB T (C) -54.1 -53.9 -54.3 -54.5 -54.4 -54.2 -53.9 -53.8 -54.2 -54.2 -54.3 -54.0 -54.2 -53.9 -54.1 -53.9 -54.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 7 7 9 9 9 8 9 8 8 8 700-500 MB RH 72 72 73 72 72 69 65 63 62 60 58 60 61 61 60 60 61 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 8 8 8 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 58 59 60 60 64 60 38 19 6 2 1 -2 0 5 6 18 15 200 MB DIV 40 72 83 79 53 64 -22 -35 18 69 71 69 53 39 12 15 25 700-850 TADV 5 4 2 0 3 1 -2 2 3 0 4 -1 6 3 5 4 11 LAND (KM) 1038 1196 1350 1505 1657 1651 1635 1422 1270 1191 1166 1000 879 760 594 481 435 LAT (DEG N) 10.2 10.3 10.4 10.6 10.7 11.2 11.9 12.9 13.9 15.0 15.9 16.8 17.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 26.1 27.6 29.1 30.7 32.2 35.3 38.6 41.9 45.3 48.5 51.5 54.1 56.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 15 15 15 15 15 16 17 17 17 16 15 13 11 9 8 7 7 HEAT CONTENT 15 19 17 13 11 17 22 9 15 18 35 26 49 45 43 45 45 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 15 CX,CY: -14/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 550 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 52.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 8.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. -0. 1. 3. 8. 14. 19. 23. 27. 30. 33. 36. 37. 38. 37. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. -0. -4. -6. -8. -11. -13. -15. -16. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 7. 6. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 7. 9. 15. 22. 28. 32. 31. 30. 30. 30. 29. 27. 28. 29. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 10.2 26.1 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL952021 INVEST 09/15/21 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 2.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.3 30.1 to 2.3 0.53 1.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 15.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.10 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.3 36.6 to 2.8 0.54 1.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 85.0 895.4 to -55.0 0.85 1.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.9 to -2.9 0.47 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 119.5 28.3 to 146.3 0.77 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 65.4 -29.7 to 185.9 0.44 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.3 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.1% 13.8% 8.7% 7.0% 4.9% 8.9% 9.4% 13.3% Logistic: 2.8% 15.9% 5.9% 2.1% 1.8% 7.1% 13.9% 28.1% Bayesian: 1.1% 16.3% 2.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.3% 1.0% 16.5% Consensus: 2.7% 15.3% 5.6% 3.1% 2.3% 5.4% 8.1% 19.3% DTOPS: 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL952021 INVEST 09/15/2021 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 32 34 37 39 45 52 58 62 61 60 60 60 59 57 58 59 18HR AGO 30 29 31 34 36 42 49 55 59 58 57 57 57 56 54 55 56 12HR AGO 30 27 26 29 31 37 44 50 54 53 52 52 52 51 49 50 51 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 22 28 35 41 45 44 43 43 43 42 40 41 42 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT