* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL952021 09/15/21 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 35 37 40 49 57 64 67 69 70 71 71 70 69 69 70 V (KT) LAND 30 32 35 37 40 49 57 64 67 69 70 71 71 70 69 69 70 V (KT) LGEM 30 32 34 36 39 44 50 55 62 66 67 64 60 54 49 44 40 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 15 16 16 14 18 19 15 8 10 15 19 22 27 24 31 26 23 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 1 1 -1 -5 -3 -3 0 -1 -1 3 6 6 7 11 4 6 SHEAR DIR 68 70 74 84 86 77 61 54 250 266 250 227 222 206 202 208 207 SST (C) 28.9 29.1 29.1 28.9 28.6 28.1 28.3 27.7 27.4 27.3 27.6 27.7 28.3 28.7 29.0 29.1 29.2 POT. INT. (KT) 152 155 155 152 147 140 143 135 131 130 133 134 142 147 152 153 154 ADJ. POT. INT. 152 155 155 152 147 140 143 135 131 130 131 130 137 140 142 141 140 200 MB T (C) -54.1 -54.2 -54.0 -54.3 -54.5 -53.9 -54.1 -53.6 -54.1 -54.1 -54.3 -53.7 -54.1 -53.6 -53.7 -53.6 -53.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 7 7 8 9 9 9 9 8 8 7 700-500 MB RH 73 72 73 72 74 71 67 60 60 58 57 56 60 59 57 55 55 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 8 8 8 8 10 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 52 58 60 61 60 63 45 25 17 2 0 -7 -5 -4 4 11 13 200 MB DIV 62 47 60 62 51 58 26 -55 3 71 58 42 59 24 5 0 -7 700-850 TADV 5 5 3 5 5 3 1 -2 1 0 2 1 3 8 7 8 14 LAND (KM) 882 1048 1206 1350 1499 1685 1626 1511 1339 1225 1190 1127 976 904 718 571 524 LAT (DEG N) 10.1 10.2 10.3 10.4 10.5 10.9 11.4 12.2 13.3 14.4 15.5 16.4 17.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 24.6 26.2 27.7 29.1 30.6 33.7 36.9 40.2 43.5 46.7 49.6 52.3 54.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 15 15 14 14 15 15 17 17 17 16 14 13 12 10 10 8 8 HEAT CONTENT 13 17 19 16 12 10 20 11 11 16 24 34 29 54 43 44 43 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 15 CX,CY: -14/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 515 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 58.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 12.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. -0. 0. 3. 8. 14. 19. 23. 27. 30. 33. 36. 37. 38. 37. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 2. 1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -10. -11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 7. 6. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 7. 10. 19. 27. 34. 37. 39. 40. 41. 41. 40. 39. 39. 40. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 10.1 24.6 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL952021 INVEST 09/15/21 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 2.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.8 30.1 to 2.3 0.51 1.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 15.4 0.0 to 151.8 0.10 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.4 36.6 to 2.8 0.60 1.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 78.0 895.4 to -55.0 0.86 1.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.5 2.9 to -2.9 0.41 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 122.3 28.3 to 146.3 0.80 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 56.4 -29.7 to 185.9 0.40 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.3 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.2% 13.9% 8.8% 7.2% 5.1% 8.6% 9.0% 12.7% Logistic: 4.6% 26.3% 11.8% 7.0% 7.7% 17.2% 18.3% 39.3% Bayesian: 1.4% 25.5% 4.1% 0.4% 0.3% 0.7% 1.1% 19.6% Consensus: 3.4% 21.9% 8.2% 4.9% 4.3% 8.8% 9.5% 23.9% DTOPS: 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL952021 INVEST 09/15/2021 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 32 35 37 40 49 57 64 67 69 70 71 71 70 69 69 70 18HR AGO 30 29 32 34 37 46 54 61 64 66 67 68 68 67 66 66 67 12HR AGO 30 27 26 28 31 40 48 55 58 60 61 62 62 61 60 60 61 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 23 32 40 47 50 52 53 54 54 53 52 52 53 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT