* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL952021 09/15/21 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 27 28 30 36 43 52 56 60 65 67 68 67 66 66 68 V (KT) LAND 25 26 27 28 30 36 43 52 56 60 65 67 68 67 66 66 68 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 26 26 27 28 31 36 40 47 53 54 51 47 43 39 35 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 18 19 17 14 16 21 12 10 3 16 18 24 22 33 34 30 25 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 0 3 4 1 -1 0 -2 0 -3 0 6 11 11 8 7 4 SHEAR DIR 69 65 65 55 61 64 78 64 212 256 251 229 201 211 206 216 218 SST (C) 28.7 29.0 29.0 28.8 28.4 28.0 28.2 27.7 27.4 27.5 27.5 27.8 28.2 28.5 28.9 29.0 29.1 POT. INT. (KT) 149 154 154 151 145 139 142 135 131 132 132 135 140 144 149 150 152 ADJ. POT. INT. 149 154 154 151 145 139 142 135 131 132 130 133 134 135 138 138 138 200 MB T (C) -53.9 -54.2 -54.2 -53.9 -54.2 -54.4 -54.0 -53.8 -53.9 -54.4 -54.3 -54.3 -54.1 -54.1 -53.9 -54.1 -54.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 7 8 9 9 10 9 9 8 9 700-500 MB RH 72 71 70 68 69 67 66 63 60 58 54 51 53 55 54 53 52 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 7 8 8 7 6 6 8 6 8 10 10 9 9 10 11 11 850 MB ENV VOR 49 46 55 65 74 67 51 33 23 16 5 1 -6 -8 -11 -13 -6 200 MB DIV 77 55 51 62 96 69 60 -23 -35 17 66 60 60 35 4 0 -14 700-850 TADV 4 2 3 1 0 -1 5 0 2 4 -2 6 0 9 3 3 4 LAND (KM) 706 872 1048 1205 1377 1717 1695 1559 1343 1200 1139 1102 960 901 812 670 548 LAT (DEG N) 10.7 10.9 11.1 11.2 11.3 11.5 11.9 12.4 13.1 14.0 14.9 15.8 16.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 23.1 24.7 26.4 28.0 29.7 33.0 36.3 39.8 43.2 46.5 49.4 52.2 54.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 16 16 16 16 16 16 17 17 17 16 14 14 11 9 7 7 6 HEAT CONTENT 12 15 18 16 12 9 17 13 10 16 25 36 30 48 50 43 45 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 16 CX,CY: -15/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 528 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 44.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 4.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -1. 2. 8. 15. 20. 25. 29. 32. 36. 39. 40. 41. 40. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 1. 2. 1. -1. -3. -4. -7. -9. -12. -13. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 6. 8. 8. 7. 5. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -0. -1. -3. -3. -2. -5. -4. -3. -4. -5. -6. -5. -4. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 5. 11. 18. 27. 31. 35. 40. 42. 43. 42. 41. 41. 43. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 10.7 23.1 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL952021 INVEST 09/15/21 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 2.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 17.0 30.1 to 2.3 0.47 0.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 14.6 0.0 to 151.8 0.10 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.9 36.6 to 2.8 0.70 1.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 85.4 895.4 to -55.0 0.85 1.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.6 2.9 to -2.9 0.40 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 125.5 28.3 to 146.3 0.82 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 68.2 -29.7 to 185.9 0.45 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.6 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.1 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.2% 12.1% 7.9% 6.5% 0.0% 0.0% 7.9% 0.0% Logistic: 3.2% 17.5% 8.0% 6.1% 5.4% 9.2% 7.2% 22.8% Bayesian: 0.3% 4.2% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 4.8% Consensus: 2.2% 11.3% 5.5% 4.2% 1.8% 3.1% 5.1% 9.2% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL952021 INVEST 09/15/2021 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 26 27 28 30 36 43 52 56 60 65 67 68 67 66 66 68 18HR AGO 25 24 25 26 28 34 41 50 54 58 63 65 66 65 64 64 66 12HR AGO 25 22 21 22 24 30 37 46 50 54 59 61 62 61 60 60 62 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 17 23 30 39 43 47 52 54 55 54 53 53 55 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT