* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL952021 09/14/21 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 28 29 32 40 47 53 60 63 65 69 70 70 68 67 68 V (KT) LAND 25 26 28 29 32 40 47 53 60 63 65 69 70 70 68 67 68 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 26 27 28 31 34 37 42 48 54 57 57 55 51 47 44 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 15 19 16 17 15 21 20 16 7 8 16 18 17 22 26 31 25 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -2 0 1 0 -3 -2 -6 -1 -1 -2 4 10 9 10 11 12 SHEAR DIR 60 62 72 82 87 94 75 71 81 263 268 244 222 212 198 206 206 SST (C) 28.4 28.8 29.1 29.1 28.8 28.2 28.3 28.1 27.6 27.6 27.4 27.5 27.7 28.1 28.3 28.5 28.8 POT. INT. (KT) 145 151 155 155 150 141 143 140 133 133 131 131 133 138 140 142 147 ADJ. POT. INT. 145 151 155 155 150 141 143 140 133 133 130 129 129 131 131 130 134 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -54.0 -54.3 -54.3 -54.1 -54.5 -53.8 -53.8 -53.6 -54.1 -54.0 -54.3 -53.9 -54.2 -53.6 -53.6 -53.6 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 7 7 9 9 9 9 9 8 8 700-500 MB RH 73 72 72 71 70 72 69 68 61 61 56 55 54 56 54 55 54 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 7 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 50 50 45 57 66 69 55 37 22 24 0 -2 -8 -12 -15 -13 -10 200 MB DIV 62 76 66 60 81 110 87 2 -51 -11 54 71 83 75 34 18 -2 700-850 TADV 4 3 8 10 8 5 1 0 0 2 -2 4 2 1 5 2 5 LAND (KM) 597 783 951 1121 1278 1584 1677 1620 1451 1280 1185 1165 1143 1030 983 940 873 LAT (DEG N) 10.5 10.6 10.7 10.8 10.9 11.0 11.2 11.5 12.2 13.0 14.1 15.2 16.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 22.0 23.8 25.4 27.0 28.6 31.6 34.6 37.7 40.9 44.0 46.9 49.5 52.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 18 17 16 16 15 15 15 16 15 15 15 13 12 10 8 7 7 HEAT CONTENT 12 12 16 20 16 10 13 21 10 13 16 24 35 27 33 51 60 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 19 CX,CY: -18/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 398 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 61.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 6.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -1. 2. 8. 15. 20. 25. 29. 33. 36. 39. 40. 41. 40. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -6. -9. -10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 9. 7. 6. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -9. -9. -9. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 4. 7. 15. 22. 28. 35. 38. 40. 44. 45. 45. 43. 42. 43. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 10.5 22.0 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL952021 INVEST 09/14/21 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 2.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 16.6 30.1 to 2.3 0.49 1.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 15.2 0.0 to 151.8 0.10 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.8 36.6 to 2.8 0.73 1.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 70.2 895.4 to -55.0 0.87 1.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.3 2.9 to -2.9 0.44 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 126.5 28.3 to 146.3 0.83 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 69.0 -29.7 to 185.9 0.46 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.7 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.2 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.5% 13.2% 8.4% 6.8% 0.0% 0.0% 8.2% 0.0% Logistic: 4.2% 27.7% 12.5% 7.8% 9.2% 12.8% 11.4% 33.0% Bayesian: 0.3% 6.5% 0.8% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.2% 1.9% Consensus: 2.6% 15.8% 7.2% 4.9% 3.1% 4.3% 6.6% 11.6% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL952021 INVEST 09/14/2021 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 26 28 29 32 40 47 53 60 63 65 69 70 70 68 67 68 18HR AGO 25 24 26 27 30 38 45 51 58 61 63 67 68 68 66 65 66 12HR AGO 25 22 21 22 25 33 40 46 53 56 58 62 63 63 61 60 61 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 18 26 33 39 46 49 51 55 56 56 54 53 54 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT