* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL952021 09/14/21 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 30 33 35 41 48 55 61 65 68 72 75 77 77 79 80 V (KT) LAND 25 28 30 33 35 41 48 55 61 65 68 72 75 77 77 79 80 V (KT) LGEM 25 27 29 31 32 36 39 43 48 54 61 67 68 67 64 63 63 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 21 19 14 16 18 17 17 18 17 7 6 15 16 12 16 12 18 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -2 0 1 1 0 0 -3 -5 2 7 1 6 5 5 7 8 SHEAR DIR 39 49 58 72 82 105 78 67 58 108 225 257 267 250 255 228 233 SST (C) 28.1 28.4 28.7 29.0 29.2 28.8 28.2 28.4 28.0 27.5 27.3 27.2 27.3 27.6 27.6 28.1 28.3 POT. INT. (KT) 141 145 149 153 157 150 141 144 138 132 129 128 128 131 131 138 141 ADJ. POT. INT. 141 145 149 153 157 150 141 144 138 132 128 125 123 125 124 129 132 200 MB T (C) -53.7 -53.6 -54.2 -54.5 -54.4 -54.5 -54.5 -54.1 -53.9 -53.9 -54.1 -54.0 -54.3 -54.0 -54.2 -53.7 -54.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 5 5 5 6 6 6 7 8 8 9 8 9 9 700-500 MB RH 74 75 74 75 74 74 73 70 68 64 59 56 51 48 50 50 50 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 7 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 51 40 39 34 47 68 65 53 43 31 17 7 5 -1 -3 -3 -6 200 MB DIV 58 69 78 71 54 103 88 90 -1 -14 15 61 51 55 26 50 33 700-850 TADV 2 2 6 5 8 6 3 0 -1 5 6 1 6 0 4 0 8 LAND (KM) 441 615 771 929 1076 1372 1654 1662 1650 1488 1368 1298 1246 1242 1158 1060 1004 LAT (DEG N) 10.2 10.3 10.3 10.3 10.4 10.6 10.8 11.2 11.8 12.6 13.7 14.8 15.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 20.3 22.1 23.6 25.1 26.5 29.4 32.2 35.0 37.9 40.8 43.6 46.1 48.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 19 16 15 14 14 14 14 14 15 15 14 13 11 10 10 9 9 HEAT CONTENT 11 11 11 14 18 14 10 15 21 9 10 18 18 26 31 27 35 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 20 CX,CY: -19/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 387 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 77.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 9.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. -1. -0. 2. 8. 15. 20. 25. 29. 33. 36. 39. 39. 40. 39. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 0. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 7. 9. 10. 8. 7. 7. 6. 5. 3. 2. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 8. 10. 16. 23. 30. 36. 40. 43. 47. 50. 52. 52. 54. 55. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 10.2 20.3 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL952021 INVEST 09/14/21 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 2.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 17.6 30.1 to 2.3 0.45 0.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 13.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.09 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.1 36.6 to 2.8 0.67 1.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 61.2 895.4 to -55.0 0.88 1.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.1 2.9 to -2.9 0.51 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 123.9 28.3 to 146.3 0.81 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 66.0 -29.7 to 185.9 0.44 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.3 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.0% 13.7% 8.6% 6.9% 0.0% 0.0% 8.9% 0.0% Logistic: 4.9% 20.8% 8.3% 3.2% 2.9% 6.8% 13.8% 28.5% Bayesian: 1.2% 34.4% 3.2% 0.4% 0.3% 0.4% 1.0% 2.8% Consensus: 3.4% 23.0% 6.7% 3.5% 1.1% 2.4% 7.9% 10.4% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL952021 INVEST 09/14/2021 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 28 30 33 35 41 48 55 61 65 68 72 75 77 77 79 80 18HR AGO 25 24 26 29 31 37 44 51 57 61 64 68 71 73 73 75 76 12HR AGO 25 22 21 24 26 32 39 46 52 56 59 63 66 68 68 70 71 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 17 23 30 37 43 47 50 54 57 59 59 61 62 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT