* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL952021 09/14/21 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 32 36 39 48 56 62 67 69 71 76 79 83 84 88 90 V (KT) LAND 25 28 32 36 39 48 56 62 67 69 71 76 79 83 84 88 90 V (KT) LGEM 25 28 30 33 35 41 46 52 58 62 65 69 74 77 79 80 81 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 5 5 4 7 9 15 17 18 19 19 11 1 5 4 7 3 7 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 8 7 8 6 5 -2 -3 -4 -4 -1 4 17 11 9 8 5 6 SHEAR DIR 69 68 100 89 88 106 120 111 99 99 121 129 241 301 257 288 233 SST (C) 28.2 28.4 28.4 28.3 28.0 27.9 27.7 27.6 27.2 27.7 27.7 27.6 27.5 28.0 27.9 28.2 28.3 POT. INT. (KT) 143 146 145 144 140 138 135 134 128 133 133 131 130 136 134 139 140 ADJ. POT. INT. 143 146 145 144 140 138 135 134 128 132 130 128 126 131 127 132 132 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.8 -53.6 -54.0 -54.3 -53.9 -54.3 -53.8 -53.9 -53.3 -53.9 -53.8 -54.3 -54.0 -54.3 -53.8 -53.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 6 7 6 7 6 7 6 7 7 8 8 9 9 9 8 700-500 MB RH 69 70 68 67 68 65 67 66 67 62 60 56 55 52 51 51 53 MODEL VTX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 40 39 41 49 50 67 64 66 67 59 56 40 26 25 22 13 18 200 MB DIV 40 56 65 63 57 81 130 91 24 -23 9 44 25 29 30 38 30 700-850 TADV 17 17 18 17 16 11 6 7 2 2 2 1 1 0 2 2 2 LAND (KM) 143 357 560 731 925 1334 1712 1681 1526 1281 1135 1080 1047 1043 1046 1076 983 LAT (DEG N) 12.0 12.2 12.3 12.4 12.4 12.4 12.1 11.8 11.3 11.1 11.3 12.1 13.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 18.1 20.1 22.0 23.8 25.7 29.6 33.1 36.4 39.4 42.0 44.0 45.8 47.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 20 19 18 18 19 18 17 16 14 11 10 10 9 9 7 8 7 HEAT CONTENT 7 11 11 12 13 8 7 14 8 16 18 23 22 36 39 41 35 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):277/ 21 CX,CY: -20/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 389 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 17.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. -0. 0. 3. 9. 15. 20. 25. 28. 32. 35. 37. 38. 39. 38. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 5. 4. 1. 0. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -0. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 6. 6. 4. 3. 2. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 6. 6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 11. 14. 23. 31. 37. 42. 44. 46. 51. 54. 58. 59. 63. 65. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 12.0 18.1 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL952021 INVEST 09/14/21 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 4.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.2 30.1 to 2.3 0.86 2.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 10.8 0.0 to 151.8 0.07 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.5 36.6 to 2.8 0.86 2.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 98.8 895.4 to -55.0 0.84 2.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.3 2.9 to -2.9 0.55 1.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 118.5 28.3 to 146.3 0.76 1.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 56.2 -29.7 to 185.9 0.40 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 24% is 2.2 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.0% 24.1% 15.5% 9.4% 0.0% 0.0% 11.1% 0.0% Logistic: 21.3% 40.5% 27.9% 19.1% 12.2% 19.2% 17.1% 23.0% Bayesian: 7.5% 48.8% 19.6% 3.9% 2.0% 5.1% 5.1% 16.0% Consensus: 11.6% 37.8% 21.0% 10.8% 4.7% 8.1% 11.1% 13.0% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL952021 INVEST 09/14/2021 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 28 32 36 39 48 56 62 67 69 71 76 79 83 84 88 90 18HR AGO 25 24 28 32 35 44 52 58 63 65 67 72 75 79 80 84 86 12HR AGO 25 22 21 25 28 37 45 51 56 58 60 65 68 72 73 77 79 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 18 27 35 41 46 48 50 55 58 62 63 67 69 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT