* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL952021 09/14/21 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 20 22 24 26 28 35 43 51 58 62 66 70 75 80 83 88 91 V (KT) LAND 20 24 26 28 31 37 45 54 60 64 68 73 77 82 85 90 93 V (KT) LGEM 20 23 24 25 26 29 32 37 41 46 50 54 58 61 63 68 74 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 11 10 7 6 11 9 14 15 12 10 10 8 6 12 9 9 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 5 8 10 11 6 0 -3 -1 0 2 9 9 9 1 3 5 SHEAR DIR 75 30 36 62 70 101 129 119 123 110 148 214 187 157 117 43 85 SST (C) 27.9 27.8 28.2 28.4 28.5 28.0 27.9 27.7 27.4 27.3 27.6 27.9 28.0 28.2 28.4 28.2 28.1 POT. INT. (KT) 138 137 142 145 147 140 138 136 131 130 132 135 136 138 140 138 136 ADJ. POT. INT. 138 137 142 145 147 140 138 136 131 130 132 133 131 132 133 131 128 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.8 -54.0 -53.8 -54.2 -54.4 -54.2 -54.3 -53.9 -53.7 -53.7 -54.1 -54.1 -54.2 -54.0 -53.9 -53.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 7 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 7 7 9 9 9 9 9 700-500 MB RH 70 72 73 70 71 68 68 65 66 64 56 53 51 50 53 53 54 MODEL VTX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 42 43 45 39 44 58 70 54 67 67 52 55 46 39 33 38 36 200 MB DIV 21 37 65 78 73 62 112 105 37 -34 -5 17 49 29 59 39 84 700-850 TADV 6 6 12 18 23 22 11 10 7 5 4 4 0 1 1 0 0 LAND (KM) -12 95 231 406 599 987 1392 1795 1677 1412 1174 1028 947 898 905 921 964 LAT (DEG N) 11.3 11.4 11.5 11.7 11.9 12.1 12.2 12.2 12.0 11.5 11.4 11.5 11.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 15.3 17.1 18.8 20.5 22.3 26.2 30.1 33.9 37.6 40.8 43.6 45.8 47.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 17 17 17 17 18 20 19 19 17 15 12 9 7 6 5 6 6 HEAT CONTENT 12 6 8 11 11 11 7 8 14 7 17 29 34 34 43 38 32 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 16 CX,CY: -15/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 474 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 6.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 97.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 8.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -1. 2. 8. 16. 21. 26. 30. 34. 38. 41. 42. 44. 42. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 6. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 6. 6. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. -0. -0. -1. 0. 2. 2. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 6. 8. 15. 23. 31. 38. 42. 46. 50. 55. 60. 63. 68. 71. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 11.3 15.3 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL952021 INVEST 09/14/21 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.4 30.1 to 2.3 0.78 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 9.6 0.0 to 151.8 0.06 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.9 36.6 to 2.8 0.88 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 67.6 895.4 to -55.0 0.87 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.3 2.9 to -2.9 0.46 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 121.6 28.3 to 146.3 0.79 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 54.8 -29.7 to 185.9 0.39 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 12.2% 28.3% 16.3% 12.3% 10.0% 20.6% 21.7% 21.8% Bayesian: 2.9% 21.7% 5.1% 1.7% 0.3% 1.1% 2.4% 9.9% Consensus: 5.0% 16.7% 7.1% 4.7% 3.4% 7.2% 8.0% 10.6% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL952021 INVEST 09/14/2021 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 20 24 26 28 31 37 45 54 60 64 68 73 77 82 85 90 93 18HR AGO 20 19 21 23 26 32 40 49 55 59 63 68 72 77 80 85 88 12HR AGO 20 17 16 18 21 27 35 44 50 54 58 63 67 72 75 80 83 6HR AGO 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT