* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL952021 09/13/21 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 22 23 24 31 39 47 53 59 64 70 74 75 75 77 80 V (KT) LAND 20 21 22 23 24 31 39 47 53 59 64 70 74 75 75 77 80 V (KT) LGEM 20 20 20 21 21 22 24 27 31 35 41 47 51 53 52 52 53 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 19 20 22 25 21 15 11 13 14 10 2 8 13 16 12 17 13 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -3 -2 -3 0 1 1 1 3 1 7 4 6 6 10 9 10 SHEAR DIR 76 74 56 49 52 63 77 77 83 80 137 244 248 225 197 202 197 SST (C) 27.5 27.8 28.2 28.5 28.7 28.7 28.5 28.4 27.8 27.7 27.2 27.2 27.4 27.3 27.5 28.0 28.2 POT. INT. (KT) 132 136 140 145 148 148 146 144 136 135 128 128 130 128 130 137 139 ADJ. POT. INT. 132 136 140 145 148 148 146 144 136 135 128 128 129 125 126 131 132 200 MB T (C) -53.8 -54.0 -54.3 -54.2 -54.2 -54.7 -54.0 -54.7 -53.9 -54.4 -53.7 -54.1 -54.1 -54.4 -54.0 -54.0 -53.6 200 MB VXT (C) -0.3 -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 8 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 6 6 8 8 9 9 9 700-500 MB RH 76 78 81 80 81 77 78 74 71 70 61 55 51 51 50 51 50 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 8 8 8 8 8 10 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 33 32 37 40 34 41 56 57 49 50 38 34 22 21 12 8 4 200 MB DIV 33 47 33 45 85 48 93 104 93 53 3 -8 23 40 49 53 48 700-850 TADV 0 2 1 0 1 0 1 2 1 3 2 4 0 3 1 3 2 LAND (KM) 198 320 402 475 569 796 1075 1366 1655 1690 1668 1454 1312 1215 1168 1148 1061 LAT (DEG N) 9.1 9.1 9.1 9.2 9.3 9.6 10.0 10.5 11.1 11.6 12.3 12.9 13.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 15.8 17.4 18.7 19.9 21.1 23.6 26.4 29.3 32.3 35.4 38.5 41.5 44.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 16 14 12 12 12 13 14 15 15 16 15 14 13 12 11 10 9 HEAT CONTENT 4 7 10 13 13 10 12 10 7 12 13 6 12 16 24 42 37 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 16 CX,CY: -15/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 422 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 28.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. -1. -0. 2. 8. 16. 21. 26. 31. 35. 38. 42. 43. 44. 43. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 10. 10. 10. 9. 8. 7. 6. 4. 3. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. -8. -8. -8. -6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 11. 19. 27. 33. 39. 44. 50. 54. 55. 55. 57. 60. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 9.1 15.8 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL952021 INVEST 09/13/21 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 21.6 30.1 to 2.3 0.31 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 9.4 0.0 to 151.8 0.06 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.5 36.6 to 2.8 0.57 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 30.4 895.4 to -55.0 0.91 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.5 2.9 to -2.9 0.58 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 120.1 28.3 to 146.3 0.78 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 48.6 -29.7 to 185.9 0.36 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.7% 9.8% 3.1% 0.9% 0.9% 3.9% 7.2% 26.3% Bayesian: 0.2% 2.6% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 2.5% Consensus: 0.6% 4.1% 1.1% 0.3% 0.3% 1.3% 2.4% 9.6% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL952021 INVEST 09/13/2021 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 20 21 22 23 24 31 39 47 53 59 64 70 74 75 75 77 80 18HR AGO 20 19 20 21 22 29 37 45 51 57 62 68 72 73 73 75 78 12HR AGO 20 17 16 17 18 25 33 41 47 53 58 64 68 69 69 71 74 6HR AGO 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT