* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL952021 09/13/21 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 20 20 21 23 24 29 34 41 47 52 57 64 69 71 69 67 66 V (KT) LAND 20 20 21 23 24 29 34 41 47 52 57 64 69 71 69 67 66 V (KT) LGEM 20 20 20 21 21 22 24 26 29 32 37 43 48 51 50 45 40 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 20 19 15 16 20 15 16 9 14 11 8 5 16 23 29 32 40 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 2 1 0 4 1 2 1 3 4 3 0 4 10 15 11 SHEAR DIR 79 83 72 57 45 59 102 89 86 77 48 278 259 239 230 214 214 SST (C) 28.3 27.6 27.6 28.0 28.3 28.9 28.6 28.5 28.1 27.6 27.4 27.1 27.2 27.3 27.8 27.8 28.2 POT. INT. (KT) 142 133 133 138 142 151 147 146 140 134 132 128 129 130 136 134 139 ADJ. POT. INT. 142 133 133 138 142 151 147 146 140 134 132 128 129 129 132 127 130 200 MB T (C) -54.1 -54.1 -54.3 -54.4 -54.3 -54.5 -54.4 -54.5 -54.6 -54.1 -54.1 -53.7 -54.2 -54.1 -54.2 -54.0 -54.0 200 MB VXT (C) -0.3 -0.3 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 6 7 9 9 9 8 700-500 MB RH 76 77 79 80 81 77 76 75 72 69 64 58 53 53 54 54 55 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 6 7 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 28 29 31 36 43 36 46 57 54 47 33 10 4 -1 5 5 12 200 MB DIV 21 34 30 16 37 54 44 113 115 78 9 -8 29 79 112 109 24 700-850 TADV 1 0 -2 4 4 7 9 3 2 0 -1 3 4 8 16 13 11 LAND (KM) 61 168 266 368 415 627 895 1219 1529 1677 1646 1494 1362 1303 1322 1230 1163 LAT (DEG N) 9.1 9.1 9.1 9.1 9.3 9.6 10.0 10.2 10.5 11.0 11.7 12.8 14.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 14.0 15.4 16.7 18.0 19.2 21.9 24.7 27.8 30.9 34.1 37.5 40.9 44.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 14 13 13 12 13 13 15 15 16 16 17 18 17 16 14 11 9 HEAT CONTENT 10 5 5 8 12 12 10 12 9 7 15 6 10 22 25 35 28 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 15 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 512 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 53.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 3.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -0. 2. 8. 16. 21. 26. 31. 35. 39. 42. 43. 44. 43. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 2. 1. -1. -1. 0. 0. -1. -4. -6. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 10. 9. 9. 7. 5. 4. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. -8. -8. -8. -7. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -9. -9. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 3. 4. 9. 14. 21. 27. 32. 37. 44. 49. 51. 49. 47. 46. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 9.1 14.0 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL952021 INVEST 09/13/21 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 18.3 30.1 to 2.3 0.43 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 8.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.05 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.1 36.6 to 2.8 0.72 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 26.0 895.4 to -55.0 0.91 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.2 2.9 to -2.9 0.70 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 117.5 28.3 to 146.3 0.76 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 27.6 -29.7 to 185.9 0.27 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.9% 16.0% 6.8% 1.9% 1.9% 5.3% 7.8% 22.8% Bayesian: 0.1% 1.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.3% 5.8% Consensus: 1.0% 5.7% 2.3% 0.6% 0.6% 1.8% 2.7% 9.5% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL952021 INVEST 09/13/2021 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 20 20 21 23 24 29 34 41 47 52 57 64 69 71 69 67 66 18HR AGO 20 19 20 22 23 28 33 40 46 51 56 63 68 70 68 66 65 12HR AGO 20 17 16 18 19 24 29 36 42 47 52 59 64 66 64 62 61 6HR AGO 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT