* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL952021 09/13/21 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 21 22 24 28 34 40 47 51 56 63 68 70 69 67 66 V (KT) LAND 20 25 25 26 28 32 38 44 51 55 60 67 72 74 73 71 70 V (KT) LGEM 20 23 25 25 26 27 29 31 34 38 43 49 55 59 57 51 45 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 22 20 19 14 16 15 16 11 11 12 6 2 13 22 28 33 37 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 0 0 3 1 4 2 2 2 4 5 6 -1 3 8 16 15 SHEAR DIR 77 78 81 66 51 45 83 133 90 92 69 333 247 239 221 206 206 SST (C) 27.7 28.1 27.6 27.4 27.7 28.4 28.2 27.9 27.8 27.1 27.3 27.5 27.7 27.5 27.9 27.9 28.3 POT. INT. (KT) 134 139 132 130 134 144 141 138 136 128 131 133 135 133 137 136 141 ADJ. POT. INT. 134 139 132 130 134 144 141 138 136 128 131 133 135 133 135 131 133 200 MB T (C) -53.9 -54.1 -54.0 -54.2 -54.4 -54.1 -54.6 -54.0 -54.7 -54.0 -54.2 -53.7 -54.2 -54.0 -54.2 -53.8 -54.0 200 MB VXT (C) -0.3 -0.3 -0.3 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 8 8 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 6 7 8 9 9 9 700-500 MB RH 75 77 77 78 79 78 75 74 73 70 68 61 56 54 55 55 56 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 7 6 7 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 27 28 29 36 37 42 39 53 51 48 39 15 9 0 -2 5 9 200 MB DIV 36 23 34 21 16 59 29 99 114 79 44 -10 17 65 94 102 47 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 -3 3 8 8 10 5 2 3 -1 9 6 17 18 7 LAND (KM) -107 15 106 197 288 439 701 1041 1388 1728 1655 1525 1343 1255 1260 1180 1081 LAT (DEG N) 9.1 9.2 9.2 9.3 9.4 9.8 10.2 10.5 10.7 11.1 11.6 12.4 13.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 12.2 13.5 14.7 16.0 17.3 20.0 22.9 26.2 29.6 33.0 36.6 40.2 43.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 12 12 12 13 13 14 15 17 17 17 18 18 18 17 15 12 10 HEAT CONTENT 3 10 5 4 6 13 8 11 7 4 15 9 13 20 28 39 29 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 15 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 553 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 67.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. -0. 0. 3. 9. 16. 21. 26. 30. 34. 38. 41. 42. 43. 42. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 1. 1. -1. -1. 1. 1. 0. -2. -5. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 10. 9. 8. 7. 5. 4. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. -8. -8. -8. -7. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. -9. -9. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 2. 4. 8. 14. 20. 27. 31. 36. 43. 48. 50. 49. 47. 46. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 9.1 12.2 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL952021 INVEST 09/13/21 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 18.5 30.1 to 2.3 0.42 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 5.6 0.0 to 151.8 0.04 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.7 36.6 to 2.8 0.68 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 41.0 895.4 to -55.0 0.90 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.7 2.9 to -2.9 0.62 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 113.8 28.3 to 146.3 0.72 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 26.0 -29.7 to 185.9 0.26 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 4.2% 21.8% 10.3% 3.9% 4.7% 10.6% 10.7% 26.0% Bayesian: 0.4% 5.6% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.3% 0.3% 10.1% Consensus: 1.5% 9.1% 3.5% 1.3% 1.6% 3.6% 3.7% 12.0% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL952021 INVEST 09/13/2021 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 20 25 25 26 28 32 38 44 51 55 60 67 72 74 73 71 70 18HR AGO 20 19 19 20 22 26 32 38 45 49 54 61 66 68 67 65 64 12HR AGO 20 17 16 17 19 23 29 35 42 46 51 58 63 65 64 62 61 6HR AGO 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT