* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL952021 08/13/21 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 33 34 37 43 49 59 64 70 74 79 80 84 84 89 90 V (KT) LAND 30 31 33 34 37 43 49 59 57 42 40 45 47 50 50 55 56 V (KT) LGEM 30 31 32 33 35 40 46 51 50 38 38 43 50 57 64 71 77 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 5 3 3 1 4 7 11 8 14 8 9 6 15 11 16 11 12 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -2 -1 -1 -4 -2 2 -2 0 2 -2 -3 -2 0 -1 2 0 SHEAR DIR 117 76 75 281 306 275 294 286 313 284 318 331 32 28 352 338 328 SST (C) 27.1 27.4 27.6 27.9 28.1 28.3 28.2 28.2 28.6 28.4 29.3 29.0 29.6 29.6 29.5 30.2 29.4 POT. INT. (KT) 128 132 134 138 141 143 141 141 146 142 157 152 163 162 160 171 158 ADJ. POT. INT. 128 132 134 138 141 143 139 136 139 134 148 143 151 144 141 152 137 200 MB T (C) -54.1 -54.0 -53.9 -54.0 -54.0 -53.7 -54.0 -53.8 -54.1 -53.6 -53.8 -53.7 -54.0 -53.6 -53.8 -53.3 -53.5 200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 -0.2 -0.3 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 0.2 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.1 -0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 9 9 9 9 9 9 8 8 8 9 9 9 8 7 7 700-500 MB RH 49 49 49 49 49 56 61 71 70 65 64 64 62 66 65 72 67 MODEL VTX (KT) 10 9 9 8 9 8 9 11 11 13 13 12 11 12 11 14 13 850 MB ENV VOR -34 -44 -46 -49 -46 -37 -24 -1 0 20 12 22 -11 -3 -20 -3 -36 200 MB DIV -13 -7 -10 6 1 44 52 81 64 48 -2 14 -9 13 11 17 9 700-850 TADV 1 -2 -5 -4 -3 -1 -9 -6 -7 -5 -1 -4 -7 -4 -5 -1 0 LAND (KM) 1216 1151 1091 945 823 685 319 21 11 -67 21 93 167 250 155 83 70 LAT (DEG N) 15.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 48.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 18 18 18 18 18 17 15 13 12 10 11 12 12 9 8 9 10 HEAT CONTENT 10 20 28 36 34 49 28 45 38 19 30 43 55 57 61 61 36 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 18 CX,CY: -17/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 505 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 38.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 6.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 9. 14. 19. 23. 26. 30. 33. 36. 37. 38. 37. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 10. 11. 10. 9. 8. 8. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -1. -3. -3. -1. -2. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -6. -3. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 4. 7. 13. 19. 29. 34. 40. 44. 49. 50. 54. 54. 59. 60. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 15.2 48.4 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL952021 INVEST 08/13/21 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 2.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 3.1 30.1 to 2.3 0.97 2.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 25.6 0.0 to 151.8 0.17 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.7 36.6 to 2.8 0.50 1.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 0.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 219.8 895.4 to -55.0 0.71 1.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.4 2.9 to -2.9 0.74 1.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 104.7 28.3 to 146.3 0.65 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : -4.6 -29.7 to 185.9 0.12 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 10.6 100.0 to 0.0 0.89 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.4 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 28% is 5.2 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.5% 15.4% 9.8% 8.2% 6.2% 10.4% 12.2% 27.5% Logistic: 4.1% 22.0% 14.9% 3.1% 1.3% 12.1% 16.6% 35.0% Bayesian: 0.3% 3.5% 1.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.7% 2.3% 11.5% Consensus: 3.0% 13.6% 8.9% 3.7% 2.5% 7.7% 10.4% 24.7% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL952021 INVEST 08/13/21 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL952021 INVEST 08/13/2021 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 31 33 34 37 43 49 59 57 42 40 45 47 50 50 55 56 18HR AGO 30 29 31 32 35 41 47 57 55 40 38 43 45 48 48 53 54 12HR AGO 30 27 26 27 30 36 42 52 50 35 33 38 40 43 43 48 49 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 23 29 35 45 43 28 26 31 33 36 36 41 42 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT