* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL952021 08/13/21 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 32 35 37 44 52 58 65 69 75 78 83 81 83 85 90 V (KT) LAND 30 31 32 35 37 44 52 58 65 56 42 35 43 41 43 46 50 V (KT) LGEM 30 30 31 33 34 39 46 53 60 60 42 34 42 47 54 61 69 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 7 5 5 4 6 3 9 11 17 11 12 10 21 16 20 18 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -4 -3 -3 -3 -5 -3 2 0 -1 0 -6 0 -4 -2 -2 -3 SHEAR DIR 102 105 82 48 31 343 342 297 292 319 307 4 26 14 12 339 304 SST (C) 26.9 26.9 27.3 27.5 27.7 28.0 28.3 28.3 28.5 28.8 28.7 29.5 29.3 29.3 29.8 30.0 30.7 POT. INT. (KT) 126 125 130 133 136 140 144 143 145 149 147 161 157 156 166 170 172 ADJ. POT. INT. 126 125 130 133 136 140 144 140 139 143 140 152 145 143 151 156 170 200 MB T (C) -54.1 -54.2 -54.3 -54.1 -54.0 -54.1 -53.9 -54.2 -53.9 -54.3 -54.0 -54.1 -53.9 -54.1 -53.6 -54.1 -53.6 200 MB VXT (C) -0.3 -0.2 -0.2 -0.3 -0.3 -0.2 -0.1 0.1 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 0.3 0.0 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 9 9 8 8 8 700-500 MB RH 53 54 53 52 52 58 67 68 74 72 68 65 63 63 71 69 66 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 9 8 8 7 7 7 7 9 9 11 9 10 7 7 8 10 850 MB ENV VOR -22 -27 -37 -47 -50 -39 -20 -19 15 4 35 19 14 -18 2 -1 2 200 MB DIV -8 -2 -12 -3 -5 12 70 52 78 31 42 9 22 6 17 6 -8 700-850 TADV -2 -1 0 -2 -4 -2 -2 -7 -9 -7 -8 -2 -4 -6 -3 -6 0 LAND (KM) 1342 1262 1206 1139 1077 785 613 254 0 -5 -76 0 24 45 73 123 59 LAT (DEG N) 14.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 45.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 18 17 18 19 19 19 18 15 12 12 11 11 10 9 10 11 12 HEAT CONTENT 9 8 12 21 31 38 35 31 50 36 22 35 43 53 48 75 57 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 19 CX,CY: -18/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 459 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 32.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 5.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 8. 14. 19. 23. 26. 30. 33. 36. 37. 39. 39. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 9. 10. 11. 10. 10. 9. 9. 7. 6. 5. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -4. -5. -3. -6. -6. -11. -10. -9. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 5. 7. 14. 22. 28. 35. 39. 45. 48. 53. 51. 53. 55. 60. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 14.5 45.0 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL952021 INVEST 08/13/21 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 2.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.1 30.1 to 2.3 0.86 1.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 16.2 0.0 to 151.8 0.11 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.3 36.6 to 2.8 0.48 1.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 184.0 895.4 to -55.0 0.75 1.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.2 2.9 to -2.9 0.71 0.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 100.2 28.3 to 146.3 0.61 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : -6.0 -29.7 to 185.9 0.11 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.2 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 27% is 5.1 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.8% 13.4% 8.8% 7.5% 5.6% 9.7% 11.9% 26.8% Logistic: 4.5% 23.2% 14.4% 3.8% 2.4% 16.1% 28.2% 56.3% Bayesian: 0.4% 9.3% 1.6% 0.1% 0.0% 1.1% 1.8% 27.9% Consensus: 2.9% 15.3% 8.3% 3.8% 2.7% 9.0% 14.0% 37.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL952021 INVEST 08/13/21 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL952021 INVEST 08/13/2021 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 31 32 35 37 44 52 58 65 56 42 35 43 41 43 46 50 18HR AGO 30 29 30 33 35 42 50 56 63 54 40 33 41 39 41 44 48 12HR AGO 30 27 26 29 31 38 46 52 59 50 36 29 37 35 37 40 44 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 22 29 37 43 50 41 27 20 28 26 28 31 35 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT